- Reds / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | MLBN
The Cincinnati Reds (+100) visit Sloan Park to take on the Chicago Cubs (-120) on Tuesday, February 27, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Mesa, AZ.
Last season, the Reds were 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs were 2-2 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Reds | +100 |
| Cubs | -120 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.85 Units / 76% ROI)
- Curt Casali has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Miles Mastrobuoni has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 58% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+5.40 Units / 180% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Patrick Wisdom has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.75 Units / 188% ROI)
- Matt Mervis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 away games (+23.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 away games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.93 Units / 22% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 34 games at home (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 68 games at home (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+6.79 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Reds went 1-0 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 54.05% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 100% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 100% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Cubs went 2-2 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -2.91% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -3.06% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -52.94% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.8 Units / 39.56% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.1 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (82 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 89.8
The average home run distance against Frankie Montas vs left-handed batters since the 2021 season is 406.8 feet — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 398.1
Frankie Montas has averaged 88.5 MPH on sliders since the 2021 season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — 94th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has averaged 96.1 MPH on fastballs since the 2021 season — tied for 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 93.3 — 90th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.6 MPH on fastballs in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — first Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks located 73% of his pitches away (827/1,135) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.2 MPH on fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks threw his changeup 52% of the time (272/524) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 48-38 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds were just 24-12 (.667) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Reds were 13-63 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs were 27-4 (.871) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Cubs were just 10-20 (.333) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Cubs are just 33-38 (.465) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Cubs were just 7-12 (.368) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Reds have won just 57% of games in which they have scored first at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds have hit 1,462 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters slugged .509 in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .376.
The Cubs batted .167 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Cubs hitters slugged .456 against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Cubs hitters had an OBP of .337 (3,050 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers walked 613 of 6,310 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers walked 140 of 1,443 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH (4,045 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .220 against Cubs pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .233 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
The Cubs have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Codi Heuer (Chicago Cubs): Elbow, Out
- Brad Boxberger (Chicago Cubs): Forearm, Out
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, Out
- Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): Foot, Day-To-Day
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Oblique, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lower Leg, Day-To-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, Day-To-Day
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Abdomen, Out
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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