- The Guardians are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Guardians TV Channel: FDOH | GDTV
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on Monday, June 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Reds are 33-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 33-31 ATS.
Reds vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Wade Miley 0-0, 18.02 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 3-6, 4.02 ERA
Reds vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -150 |
Reds vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s MLB game with 60.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+16.30 Units / 272% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Gavin Lux has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.60 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+13.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+11.80 Units / 236% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.50 Units / 77% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.30 Units / 65% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+5.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 56 games (+3.75 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+9.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 55 games (+8.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.14 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 36-29 against the Run Line (+1.4 Units / 1.53% ROI).
- 33-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -4 Units / -5.01% ROI
- 26-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.4 Units / -22.73% ROI
- 39-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.45 Units / 14.31% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 33-31 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -3.66% ROI).
- 34-30 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 6.95% ROI
- 28-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -10.32% ROI
- 33-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.25 Units / 3.14% ROI
Guardians vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Gabriel Arias (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -220 |
Guardians vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wade Miley (CIN) | 2.5 -130 | 2.5 +100 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley located his fastball inside 53% of the time (242/460) in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have not swung and missed (0/20) against Wade Miley over the past seven days (1 game) — lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 18% (116/657) against Wade Miley in 2023 — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Wade Miley allowed a BABIP of .229 against right-handed batters in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 98th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (36/93) against Luis Ortiz on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 14% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has allowed an OBP of .361 (108 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — seventh Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 12% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 154 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 0-25 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Reds are just 0-27 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .042.
The Reds are just 6-86 (.065) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Reds are just 4-90 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .098.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 98-3 (.970) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Guardians are 104-2 (.981) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Guardians were 82-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are 110-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Reds are batting just .123 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .661 (2,297 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .297 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters had an OPS of just .662 (1,910 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .329 in righty-righty matchups since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Reds vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
