The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the Seattle Mariners (-140) on Thursday, March 21, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Peoria, AZ.
This season, the Reds are 5-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 8-6 ATS.
Reds vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Reds | +120 |
| Mariners | -140 |
Reds vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s matchup with 54.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.85 Units / 76% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+5.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sam Haggerty has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Caballero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Emerson Hancock has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 away games (+23.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 away games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.93 Units / 22% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games at home (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Reds are 6-9 against the Run Line (-5.9 Units / -28.89% ROI).
- 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.47 Units / -19.14% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1 Units / -6.04% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.88 Units / -5.36% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mariners are 8-6 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 8.25% ROI).
- 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.66 Units / -21.02% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.51 Units / 35.34% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.9 Units / -45.36% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 54% (169/311) against Nick Martinez in the 2023 season — 8th highest among in NL; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 74% (32/43) against Nick Martinez’s curve and slider in the 2023 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
63% of Nick Martinez strikeouts were located out of the zone in the 2023 season — 10th highest among in NL; League Avg: 51% — 88th Percentile.
Nick Martinez struck out 20 batters on three pitches in the 2023 season — tied for 6th most among in NL — 95th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller had a strike rate of 71% (460/648) in two strike counts in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 99th Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed an OBP of just .234 (282 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 67% of Bryce Miller’s pitches (431/648) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 99th Percentile.
Bryce Miller threw fastballs 66% of the time (247/377) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Reds are just 48-38 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds are 24-10 (.706) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Reds are just 17-24 (.415) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Mariners were 13-8 (.619) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Mariners are 31-30 (.508) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Mariners are 125-23 (.845) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Mariners are 83-27 (.755) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Reds have won just 63% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
The Reds are just 48-38 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners batted just .125 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Mariners hitters struck out 1,181 times in 4,577 PA’s (26%) against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters pulled 50% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Reds pitchers walked 613 of 6,310 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers walked 140 of 1,443 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 421 of 6,006 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers walked 97 of 1,455 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers had a strikeout rate of 27% in late innings in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mariners pitchers allowed innings of 3+ runs in 5% of innings played in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Mariners vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mitch Haniger (Seattle Mariners): Back, Out
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, Out
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, Out
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Arm, Out
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, Out
- Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): Foot, Day-To-Day
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Oblique, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lower Leg, Day-To-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, Day-To-Day
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Abdomen, Out
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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