- The Reds are -125 favorites vs the Marlins
- Reds vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Marlins TV Channel: FDOH | FDFL
The Cincinnati Reds (-125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+105) on Monday, April 21, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL, FL.
This season, the Reds are 11-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 10-11 ATS.
Reds vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 2-1, 2.32 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 1-2, 2.66 ERA
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -110 | -125 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -110 | +105 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Hays has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+16.90 Units / 211% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Connor Norby has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 20 games at home (+18.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+11.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+10.70 Units / 119% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games at home (+10.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 56% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 94 of their last 164 games (+15.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 82 away games (+10.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 164 games (+6.15 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 33% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 81 games at home (+30.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 49 of their last 81 games at home (+12.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 161 games (+0.75 Units / 0% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 13-9 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 1.95% ROI).
- 11-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 3.43% ROI
- 11-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.41% ROI
- 10-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -8.07% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 10-11 against the Run Line (-2.4 Units / -9.49% ROI).
- 9-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 5.52% ROI
- 14-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 25.42% ROI
- 7-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.2 Units / -36.28% ROI
Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Matt McLain (CIN) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gavin Lux (CIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Norby (MIA) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eric Wagaman (MIA) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -285 |
Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo has not walked any of the 36 batters that they have faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of just 15% (14 SO in 92 PAs) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has walked 2% of batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 97th Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of just 11% (4 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 41% (32/79) against Max Meyer this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (40/244) against Max Meyer since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Max Meyer has a strikeout rate of 39% (14 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Max Meyer has thrown his slider 47% of the time (93/200) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 8-18 (.308) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 0-9 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .081.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins were just 30-51 (.370) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Marlins were just 14-31 (.311) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Mets (seventh best runs scored) today.
The Marlins are just 19-36 (.345) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Reds (16th best runs scored) today.
The Marlins are just 22-47 (.319) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Reds are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters slugged just .151 on pitches out of the zone in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins had a winning percentage of just 37% at home last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters pulled just 42% of balls they’ve put into play in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins batted .281 against LHP in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
More MLB Reading:
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