- The Padres are -135 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Padres TV Channel: BSOH | PDTV
The Cincinnati Reds (+115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-135) on Wednesday, May 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Reds are 16-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 15-18 ATS.
Reds vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Graham Ashcraft 3-1, 4.40 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Joe Musgrove 3-3, 7.08 ERA
Reds vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 8 +100 | +115 |
| Padres | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -120 | -135 |
Reds vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games (+21.40 Units / 102% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+12.05 Units / 53% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+10.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.50 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+13.40 Units / 134% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+13.25 Units / 70% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 away games (+23.65 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 114 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+16.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 65 away games (+14.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.93 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 65 games at home (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 55 games at home (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 17-13 against the Run Line (+3.7 Units / 9.54% ROI).
- 16-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 2.19% ROI
- 16-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.35 Units / 4.06% ROI
- 13-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -14.48% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 15-18 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -4.63% ROI).
- 15-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.1 Units / -12.36% ROI
- 17-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 2.23% ROI
- 15-17 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -10.6% ROI
Padres vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Will Benson (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Luis Campusano (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 7.36 (95.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OPS of 1.678 (21 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.044 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .328 (19-for-58) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — sixth Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has walked 3 of 61 left-handed batters (5%) this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 85th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (17 Total Bases / 17 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .360 — first Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed a slugging percentage of .814 (35 Total Bases / 43 ABs) over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .358 — first Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OBP of .405 (158 PA’s) this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — fourth Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an OPS of .970 (158 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .680 — second Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Reds are just 56-41 (.577) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 44-19 (.698) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .796.
The Reds are just 23-25 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 44-48 (.478) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Padres are just 4-16 (.200) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are just 1-83 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Padres are just 16-31 (.340) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Padres are just 84-14 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .097 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Reds hitters have 30 extra-base hits out of 66 total hits (46%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Reds are batting just .123 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .167.
Reds hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .186 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres hitters have an OBP of just .287 (299 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .781 (1,998 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .361 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (4,695 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,921 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,921 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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