- The Guardians are -135 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Royals / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | FDKC
The Kansas City Royals (+110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Saturday, April 12, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Royals are 7-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 6-7 ATS.
Royals vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen 1-1, 3.18 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-2, 8.72 ERA
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -105 | +110 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -115 | -135 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 away games (+13.55 Units / 63% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.40 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Jones has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+9.00 Units / 225% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.20 Units / 92% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 72% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 94 of their last 169 games (+15.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 86 away games (+3.05 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 86 away games (+2.65 Units / 2% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 87 of their last 165 games (+2.00 Units / 1% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 87 games at home (+11.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games at home (+10.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 87 games at home (+9.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 89 of their last 172 games (+8.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 5-9 against the Run Line (-6.05 Units / -29.51% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -6.65% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -17.16% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 8.63% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 6-7 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -8.33% ROI).
- 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 4.96% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -9.32% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.45 Units / 3.07% ROI
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Lorenzen (KC) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .318 (7-for-22) against Michael Lorenzen with two-strikes in his last two starts — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .150 — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has a strike rate of just 49% (24/49) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .318 (7-for-22) against Michael Lorenzen with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .160 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 18% (6/34) against Michael Lorenzen with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 2nd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 39% — fourth Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has allowed a slugging percentage of .545 (12 Total Bases / 22 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Opponents batted just .161 (27-for-168) against Luis Ortiz versus the 2-3-4 hitters in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Ortiz walked 12 of 80 batters (15%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in 2023 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .318 (7-for-22) against Luis Ortiz with two-strikes this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 5 total IP; League Avg: .160 — third Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 4-55 (.068) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 21-67 (.239) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .373.
The Royals are just 14-81 (.147) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 83-2 (.976) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .901.
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Guardians are 54-30 (.643) at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of .369 (86 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Royals hitters have just 314 strikeouts in 1,588 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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