Royals vs Tigers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Apr 28

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(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Apr 28, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Tigers are -155 favorites vs the Royals
  • Royals vs Tigers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
  • Royals / Tigers TV Channel: BSKC | BSDT

The Kansas City Royals (+130) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (-155) on Sunday, April 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Detroit, MI.

This season, the Royals are 17-11 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 11-16 ATS.

Royals vs Tigers Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 1-2, 3.81 ERA
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal 3-0, 1.82 ERA

Royals vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 -160O 7.5 -115+130
Tigers -1.5 +135U 7.5 -105-155

Royals vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 28 games (+12.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+11.95 Units / 100% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 games (+10.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.80 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.65 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Mark Canha has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+10.30 Units / 206% ROI)
  • Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+9.35 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.00 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Colt Keith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.25 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.65 Units / 67% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games (+9.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.49 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.00 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 135 games (+12.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.89 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 75 games (+8.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.39 Units / 74% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 18-10 against the Run Line (+5.04 Units / 12.62% ROI).

  • 17-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.95 Units / 24.65% ROI
  • 9-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -28.86% ROI
  • 16-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.1 Units / 20.54% ROI

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 11-16 against the Run Line (-5.8 Units / -16.09% ROI).

  • 15-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 7.79% ROI
  • 11-10 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • 10-11 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -8.44% ROI

Tigers vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Kerry Carpenter (DET) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
Riley Greene (DET) 0.5 +600 0.5 -900

Tigers vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Javier Baez (DET) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Riley Greene (DET) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Kerry Carpenter (DET) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180

Tigers vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Spencer Torkelson (DET) 0.5 +120 0.5 -160
Kerry Carpenter (DET) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Matt Vierling (DET) 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Salvador Perez (KC) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Javier Baez (DET) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Tigers vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Michael Wacha has allowed an OBP of .465 (43 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Michael Wacha when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 93rd Percentile.

Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (53/113) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .122 (5-for-41) against Michael Wacha when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 95th Percentile.

Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tarik Skubal has a strikeout rate of 40% (18 SO in 45 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has allowed a slugging percentage of just .071 (3 Total Bases / 42 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: .386 — 100th Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has a strikeout rate of 40% (18 SO in 45 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Tarik Skubal has allowed an OBP of just .133 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — 100th Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Royals are just 18-14 (.562) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .793.

The Royals are just 18-45 (.286) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.

The Royals are just 54-119 (.312) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Royals are just 9-44 (.170) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Tigers are 22-11 (.667) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .589.

The Tigers are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Tigers are just 41-53 (.436) after a home loss since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.

The Tigers are just 77-98 (.440) at home since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (3,369 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.

The Royals have won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.

Royals hitters have an OBP of just .261 (613 PA’s) with bases empty this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .305.

Tigers hitters are slugging just .354 against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .291 (9,863 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .644 (9,863 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Tigers have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Royals pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 25% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Royals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 2.96 (575.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.

Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Tigers vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
  • Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
  • Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
  • Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
  • Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
  • Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
  • Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
  • Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
  • Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.