- The Twins are -190 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Twins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Royals / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | FDKC
The Kansas City Royals (+155) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-190) on Friday, May 23, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
This season, the Royals are 28-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 28-21 ATS.
Royals vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Noah Cameron 1-1, 0.71 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 4-2, 2.38 ERA
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -145 | O 8 -118 | +155 |
| Twins | -1.5 +120 | U 8 -102 | -190 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+14.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+12.50 Units / 179% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.50 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Willi Castro has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+7.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.30 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.75 Units / 36% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+4.50 Units / 90% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 games at home (+4.50 Units / 45% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 51 games (+24.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+16.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 13 away games (+10.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.50 Units / 18% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games (+14.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games (+12.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 16 games (+12.80 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 42 games (+12.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 42 games (+9.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 27-24 against the Run Line (-4.1 Units / -5.56% ROI).
- 28-23 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.8 Units / 9.01% ROI
- 17-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.77 Units / -33.81% ROI
- 33-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.25 Units / 25.14% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 28-21 against the Run Line (+8.6 Units / 14.03% ROI).
- 27-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 2.1% ROI
- 17-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.8 Units / -27.43% ROI
- 29-17 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.35 Units / 19.18% ROI
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Harrison Bader (MIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Cameron (KC) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -118 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Noah Cameron has allowed an OBP of just .095 (21 PA’s) over the past seven days (1 game) — 2nd best among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .287 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .095 (2-for-21) against Noah Cameron over the past seven days (1 game) — 3rd best among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: .225 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .095 (2-for-21) against Noah Cameron in his last start — 6th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .225 — 94th Percentile.
Noah Cameron has thrown breaking pitches 46% of the time (16/35) vs left-handed batters over the past seven days (1 game) — 3rd highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 26% — 94th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 34% (154/456) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a first pitch chase rate of 24% (82/335) against Pablo Lopez in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 13% (2/15) against Pablo Lopez in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opposing hitters had a chase rate of 37% (73/195) against Pablo Lopez when he was behind in the count in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 6-61 (.090) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .192.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 58-19 (.753) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Twins (11th best runs scored) today.
The Royals are just 18-86 (.173) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are 94-2 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Twins are just 1-87 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins were 40-18 (.690) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .288 (6,946 PA’s) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of its PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters struck out just 298 times in 1,502 PA’s (20%) against LHP in the 2024 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging 1.021 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .602.
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters struck out 1,274 times in 4,710 PA’s (27%) against RHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in 2023 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have walked 5% of batters this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers walked 433 of 6,078 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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