- The Tigers are -118 favorites vs the Blue Jays
- Tigers vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Tigers / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN1 | FDDT | MLBN
The Detroit Tigers (-118) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-102) on Friday, May 16, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Tigers are 29-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 26-17 ATS.
Tigers vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty 1-5, 4.61 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Bowden Francis 2-5, 5.54 ERA
Tigers vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -118 | -118 |
| Blue Jays | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -102 | -102 |
Tigers vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Colt Keith has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 away games (+25.65 Units / 428% ROI)
- Trey Sweeney has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- Trey Sweeney has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 away games (+8.75 Units / 70% ROI)
- Trey Sweeney has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Trey Sweeney has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 away games (+8.70 Units / 84% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+16.50 Units / 330% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+10.95 Units / 110% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 48% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 59% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 games (+15.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 44 games (+14.33 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 44 games (+14.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 43 games (+7.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+8.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+7.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+4.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.74 Units / 30% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 26-18 against the Run Line (+5.4 Units / 9.42% ROI).
- 29-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.2 Units / 19.06% ROI
- 23-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 7.26% ROI
- 18-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.25 Units / -14.84% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 26-17 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 11.48% ROI).
- 21-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.46 Units / -2.91% ROI
- 22-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.65 Units / -1.38% ROI
- 21-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -6.4% ROI
Blue Jays vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
Blue Jays vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ernie Clement (TOR) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Blue Jays vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Anthony Santander (TOR) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Blue Jays vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty (DET) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Bowden Francis (TOR) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty threw breaking pitches 51% of the time (292/571) when ahead in the count in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty walked 39 of 236 batters (17%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty had a strikeout rate of 31% (78/252) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in the 2024 season — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 39% (80/207) against Jack Flaherty with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bowden Francis has allowed a slugging percentage of .605 (26 Total Bases / 43 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .312 — first Percentile.
Bowden Francis has allowed a slugging percentage of .645 (40 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .366 — 0 Percentile.
Bowden Francis has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.120 (28 Total Bases / 25 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .573 — second Percentile.
Bowden Francis has allowed an OPS of 1.040 (71 PA’s) on non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: .639 — 0 Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Tigers were 18-54 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Tigers are 25-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .879.
The Tigers were 13-55 (.191) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Tigers are 21-66 (.241) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .138.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Blue Jays are just 13-4 (.765) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Blue Jays were just 17-75 (.185) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Blue Jays are just 27-50 (.351) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Blue Jays were just 4-74 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Tigers hitters had an OBP of just .298 (1,395 PA’s) against LHP in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of .780 (528 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Tigers hitters had an OPS of just .686 (6,080 PA’s) in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays are batting just .240 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .344.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .385 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .476 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Blue Jays hitters have an OPS of just .669 (1,809 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Tigers pitchers since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers walked 416 of 5,969 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in 2023 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
More MLB Reading:
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