- The Tigers are -120 favorites vs the Guardians
- Tigers vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Tigers / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSDT
The Detroit Tigers (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Monday, July 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 49-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-49 ATS.
Tigers vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal 10-3, 2.41 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco 3-7, 5.05 ERA
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +150 | O 7 -105 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | U 7 -115 | +100 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Monday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 26 games (+22.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 83 games (+12.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.85 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+8.35 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.30 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 39 games at home (+13.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+11.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 57 of their last 98 games (+11.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 40 games at home (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games at home (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 50-50 against the Run Line (-5.3 Units / -3.9% ROI).
- 49-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -4.18% ROI
- 53-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.5 Units / 7.95% ROI
- 40-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.5 Units / -17.35% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 49-49 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 2.99% ROI).
- 59-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.67 Units / 9.86% ROI
- 47-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -2.54% ROI
- 45-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -6.11% ROI
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Carson Kelly (DET) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Zach McKinstry (DET) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco (CLE) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Tarik Skubal (DET) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .149 (24-for-161) against Tarik Skubal when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .228 — 98th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has a strikeout rate of 48% (13 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 23% (23/102) against Tarik Skubal when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has a strike rate of 71% (380/532) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .395 (70-for-177) against Carlos Carrasco’s inside fastball since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .751 (133 Total Bases / 177 ABs) on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .760 (38 Total Bases / 50 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .415 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .310 (88-for-284) against Carlos Carrasco when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .247 — first Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are 11-34 (.244) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Tigers are 49-21 (.700) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .621.
The Tigers are just 32-8 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Tigers are just 38-4 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 10-14 (.417) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Guardians are 31-11 (.738) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .531.
The Guardians are 18-14 (.562) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Guardians are 13-3 (.812) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .547.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .309 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .363 against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Tigers are batting just .282 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
The Tigers have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,078 strikeouts in 11,356 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Guardians are batting just .275 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 319 of 3,760 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 267 of 3,703 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Tigers have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
The Guardians have allowed 0.74 runs per game (73/98) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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