- The Guardians are -185 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Tigers / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSDT | MLBN
The Detroit Tigers (+135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-165) on Thursday, July 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 50-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-52 ATS.
Tigers vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 0-2, 4.50 ERA
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -150 | O 8 -115 | +135 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -105 | -165 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 58.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Colt Keith has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 45 games (+25.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+15.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 27 games (+12.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 31 games (+12.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 17 games at home (+58.50 Units / 344% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+12.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games (+9.95 Units / 166% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 16 games (+15.20 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 86 games (+13.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 42 games at home (+14.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 58 of their last 101 games (+10.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+7.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 46 games at home (+7.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 53-50 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.39% ROI).
- 50-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.8 Units / -4.9% ROI
- 55-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.5 Units / 8.63% ROI
- 41-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.7 Units / -17.9% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 49-52 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 61-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.67 Units / 10.34% ROI
- 49-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -1.57% ROI
- 46-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -7.01% ROI
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
| Tyler Holton (DET) | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .353 (18-for-51) against Reese Olson’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .209 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .174 (12-for-69) against Reese Olson on low fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .261 — 96th Percentile.
Reese Olson has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (610/939) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 52% (156/299) against Reese Olson this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 92nd Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has not allowed a HR in any of his last five starts dating back to September 17th, 2023 — the longest active streak is 13.
Gavin Williams has a strikeout rate of just 33% (14 SO in 43 PAs) with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 4th lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Gavin Williams has not allowed a home run in any of the last 30.0 innings he’s appeared — Joe Mantiply has the longest active streak at 68.1.
Gavin Williams has a strikeout rate of just 14% (5 SO in 36 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (4 games) — tied for 3rd lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 22% — 13th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are 16-1 (.941) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Tigers are just 27-110 (.197) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Tigers are just 34-8 (.810) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Tigers are just 29-162 (.152) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 18-16 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Guardians are 33-14 (.702) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Guardians are 10-16 (.385) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Guardians are 14-5 (.737) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .544.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (12,014 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Tigers are batting just .307 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
The Tigers are batting just .304 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Tigers have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .278 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 22% of swings since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Guardians hitters have just 2,087 strikeouts in 11,410 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 276 of 3,815 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Tigers have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 752 of 9,888 batters (8%) since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 322 of 3,785 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Guardians pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.76 runs per game (77/101) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Reese Olson (Detroit Tigers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Alex Lange (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Matt Manning (Detroit Tigers): Lat, 7-Day IL
- Parker Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Eddys Leonard (Detroit Tigers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Kerry Carpenter (Detroit Tigers): Back, 60-Day IL
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