- The Guardians are -120 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Tigers / Guardians TV Channel: FS1 | BSGL | BSDT
The Detroit Tigers (+100) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Monday, May 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 18-16 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 23-11 ATS.
Tigers vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Jack Flaherty 0-1, 4.04 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie 2-2, 4.25 ERA
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -225 | O 7.5 -120 | +100 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 +100 | -120 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+19.10 Units / 174% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+13.30 Units / 62% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+11.80 Units / 73% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.65 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Will Brennan has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 11 games (+20.70 Units / 188% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.75 Units / 73% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+10.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 33 games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games at home (+10.10 Units / 72% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+18.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+16.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 49 away games (+14.72 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 away games (+12.79 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 68 games at home (+16.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 120 games (+6.20 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+4.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 15-19 against the Run Line (-5.25 Units / -11.48% ROI).
- 18-16 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 3.01% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -3.86% ROI
- 14-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.65 Units / -4.78% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 23-11 against the Run Line (+13.25 Units / 30.49% ROI).
- 22-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.52 Units / 21.21% ROI
- 18-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 7.36% ROI
- 14-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -15.49% ROI
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Javier Baez (DET) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jack Flaherty (DET) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Triston McKenzie (CLE) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (101/267) against Jack Flaherty this season — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 51% (25/49) against Jack Flaherty with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a strikeout rate of 34% (50 SO in 147 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of 48% (24/50) against Jack Flaherty when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has walked 9 of 54 batters (17%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has walked 18 of 128 batters (14%) this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .111 (2-for-18) against Triston McKenzie on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .330 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (29/81) against Triston McKenzie when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 21-89 (.191) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Tigers are 22-11 (.667) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Tigers are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are 40-13 (.755) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .615.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 24-130 (.156) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .094.
The Guardians are 12-70 (.146) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Guardians are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 8-80 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .646 (10,049 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Tigers are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .659 (13,222 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .291 (10,049 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .223 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Guardians hitters have just 1,768 strikeouts in 9,714 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put 44% of balls in play to the right side of the field this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 94 of 1,265 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 277 of 3,178 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .184 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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