- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Tigers / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | BSDT
The Detroit Tigers (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 18-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 23-12 ATS.
Tigers vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda 1-1, 5.09 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 0-1, 2.25 ERA
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -105 | +105 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -115 | -125 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 games (+23.40 Units / 195% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+21.70 Units / 217% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 19 of his last 34 games (+12.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+11.75 Units / 64% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+9.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+18.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+16.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 49 away games (+14.72 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 away games (+12.79 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 65 games at home (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 120 games (+6.20 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+4.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 16-19 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -8.88% ROI).
- 18-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.1 Units / 0.25% ROI
- 14-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -7.04% ROI
- 15-14 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.65 Units / -1.83% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 23-12 against the Run Line (+12.25 Units / 27.56% ROI).
- 23-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.52 Units / 22.85% ROI
- 18-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 4.16% ROI
- 15-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -12.47% ROI
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Rogers (DET) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Javier Baez (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Tyler Freeman (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda (DET) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (38/130) against Kenta Maeda in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (32/130) against Kenta Maeda on sliders since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has allowed 4 home runs with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd most among pitchers in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has thrown off-speed pitches 71% of the time (743/1,048) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total NonFB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has allowed an OPS of .998 (63 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .660 — fourth Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .649 (37 Total Bases / 57 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .380 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (8-for-22) against Logan Allen’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .201 — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 20% (44/224) against Logan Allen this season — 5th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 11th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are 64-25 (.719) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .636.
The Tigers are 22-12 (.647) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Tigers are just 21-28 (.429) after a home win since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Tigers are 40-14 (.741) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .615.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 35-123 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Guardians are 19-66 (.224) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Guardians are just 10-17 (.370) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .291 (10,082 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .646 (10,082 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .296 (13,259 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .355 against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The Guardians are batting just .229 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Guardians hitters have just 2,533 strikeouts in 13,585 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put 42% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 277 of 3,186 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (592.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the past seven days (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .184 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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