- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Tigers in Game 1 of today’s double header
- Tigers vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Tigers / Mets TV Channel: SNY | BSDT
The Detroit Tigers (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Thursday, April 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This is Game 1 of today’s double header.
This season, the Tigers are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 0-4 ATS.
Tigers vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Adrian Houser 0-0, 0.00 ERA
Tigers vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -190 | O 7.5 -115 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +155 | U 7.5 -105 | -1355 |
Tigers vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Andy Ibanez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- Tarik Skubal has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+8.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Reese Olson has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 71% ROI)
- Tarik Skubal has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Mark Canha has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 away games (+6.30 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Luis Guillorme has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- DJ Stewart has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.25 Units / 88% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+18.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+16.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 74 away games (+15.97 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 away games (+12.79 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games at home (+18.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 1-3 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -41.67% ROI).
- 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.2 Units / 80% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -52.81% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 43.68% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 0-4 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -100% ROI
- 1-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -50% ROI
- 3-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 41.3% ROI
Mets vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lindor | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Taylor | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Greene | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Marte | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Urshela | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 -2500 |
Mets vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mize | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
| Houser | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Casey Mize has not allowed a walk in his last 68 PAs against a RHH dating back to August 24th, 2021 — Ryan Borucki has the longest active streak at 99.
Matt Manning allowed a BABIP of .216 in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .295 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (21/140) against Matt Manning on non-fastballs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (45/239) against Matt Manning since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 97th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 77% of the time (290/375) with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Houser has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (401/544) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 66 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 63% (39/62) against Adrian Houser when going through the lineup the third time in a game in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Adrian Houser threw fastballs 77% of the time (290/375) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Tigers were 32-9 (.780) when they scored in the first inning in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Tigers are just 20-126 (.137) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Tigers are 56-20 (.727) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Tigers are just 37-49 (.430) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mets are 152-2 (.987) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mets are just 6-126 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters are slugging just .356 against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .176 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .659 (12,106 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .364 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .331 (31 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.080.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .453 (110 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters have an OBP of just .250 (144 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 38% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .071 against Tigers pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 8 of 143 batters (6%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .419 against Mets pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have walked 604 of 6,243 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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