- The Twins are -120 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Tigers / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | BSDT
The Detroit Tigers (+100) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-120) on Sunday, April 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Tigers are 11-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 7-12 ATS.
Tigers vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 0-0, 4.11 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Louie Varland 0-3, 8.17 ERA
Tigers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -210 | O 8 -110 | +100 |
| Twins | -1.5 +160 | U 8 -110 | -120 |
Tigers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Mark Canha has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 49% ROI)
- Mark Canha has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+7.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Mark Canha has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 away games (+7.40 Units / 47% ROI)
- Tarik Skubal has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tarik Skubal has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 6 away games (+6.05 Units / 86% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.80 Units / 82% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.40 Units / 70% ROI)
- Carlos Santana has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 games (+7.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+6.90 Units / 21% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+18.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+16.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 49 away games (+14.72 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 48 away games (+12.79 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+11.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 8-13 against the Run Line (-5.85 Units / -21.04% ROI).
- 11-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -5.31% ROI
- 10-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -3.72% ROI
- 10-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -4.93% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 7-12 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -29.92% ROI).
- 7-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -28.18% ROI
- 8-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.2 Units / -14.95% ROI
- 10-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 6.85% ROI
Twins vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Twins vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Twins vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kerry Carpenter (DET) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (11/72) against Casey Mize this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 9% (2/22) against Casey Mize on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Casey Mize has not walked any of the 25 batters that he has faced versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Casey Mize has a strike rate of just 57% (54/94) in two strike counts this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 64% — seventh Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .297 (11-for-37) against Louie Varland with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .168 — second Percentile.
Louie Varland has allowed a slugging percentage of .600 (21 Total Bases / 35 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 0 Percentile.
Louie Varland has allowed an OPS of .886 (43 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .506 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .343 (12-for-35) against Louie Varland when ahead in the count this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: .192 — first Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Tigers are 36-11 (.766) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Tigers are just 21-131 (.138) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Tigers are just 40-52 (.435) after a home loss since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Tigers are just 25-58 (.301) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Twins are just 14-29 (.326) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 19-59 (.244) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
The Twins are 36-13 (.735) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .616.
The Twins are just 26-64 (.289) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters are slugging just .353 against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .644 (9,676 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .362 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .658 (12,750 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .189 (402 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Twins are batting just .146 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters are slugging just .237 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Twins are batting just .238 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 271 of 3,065 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 2.89 (548.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.32.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .212 against Tigers pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 50% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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