The Minnesota Twins (+170) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-210) on Monday, March 11, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in North Port, FL.
This season, the Twins are 4-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 6-4 ATS.
Twins vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Twins | +170 |
| Braves | -210 |
Twins vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 61.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.85 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ozzie Albies has hit the Hits Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Chadwick Tromp has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+0.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 83 away games (+11.39 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.41 Units / 21% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Twins are 6-5 against the Run Line (-0.13 Units / -0.96% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.4 Units / -13.93% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.28 Units / -10.87% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.3 Units / 2.4% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Braves are 6-4 against the Run Line (+1.53 Units / 11.83% ROI).
- 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.3 Units / 9.79% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.52 Units / -4.76% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.67 Units / -5.98% ROI
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack has limited playing time.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 42% (332/783) against Spencer Strider in the 2023 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 39% (635/1,644) against Spencer Strider in the 2023 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider had a strikeout rate of 37% (281/763) in the 2023 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider struck out 67 batters on three pitches in the 2023 season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Twins are just 13-27 (.325) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were 69-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The Twins are just 29-44 (.397) after a road win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Twins were 31-10 (.756) when they scored in the first inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .611.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Braves were 28-46 (.378) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Braves are 46-41 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 164-34 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Twins hitters struck out 1,654 times in 6,219 PA’s (27%) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters slugged .716 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Braves hitters had an OBP of .400 (732 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers walked 443 of 6,028 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers walked 99 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 49% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Braves vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Out
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Penn Murfee (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Eli White (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jackson Stephens (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
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