- The Twins are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Twins vs Nationals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Nationals TV Channel: BSNO | MASN
The Minnesota Twins (-185) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+150) on Tuesday, May 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Twins are 24-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 28-18 ATS.
Twins vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 2-3, 3.59 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 1-4, 5.63 ERA
Twins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 -110 | O 8.5 -115 | -185 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | U 8.5 -105 | +150 |
Twins vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 63.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 13 away games (+26.70 Units / 205% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+16.10 Units / 61% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.35 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+14.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+11.00 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games (+27.30 Units / 248% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+14.70 Units / 98% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+12.20 Units / 111% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.65 Units / 89% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.74 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.10 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games (+4.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+3.40 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 38 games (+11.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 38 games (+10.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 38 games (+8.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.45 Units / 40% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 23-24 against the Run Line (-3.2 Units / -5.12% ROI).
- 24-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -7.84% ROI
- 22-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.15 Units / -4.23% ROI
- 22-22 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -4.36% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 28-18 against the Run Line (+7.73 Units / 13.01% ROI).
- 21-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.8 Units / 14.51% ROI
- 19-24 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -14.43% ROI
- 24-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.88 Units / 5.65% ROI
Nationals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Eddie Rosario (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Nationals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Nationals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (150/212) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 96th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 29% (23/78) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 70% (1,164/1,651) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has walked 7 of 212 batters (3%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .324 (192-for-592) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .326 (110-for-337) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — third Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .475 (80 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .274 (23-for-84) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .164 — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Twins are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 21-68 (.236) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Twins are 43-15 (.741) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .618.
The Twins are 158-4 (.975) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Nationals are just 68-112 (.378) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 23-42 (.354) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 35-55 (.389) after a win since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Nationals are just 45-68 (.398) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .273 (198 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Twins hitters have 1,593 strikeouts in 6,036 PA’s (26%) against RHP since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have drawn 23 walks in 430 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .388 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
The Nationals are just 3-13 (.188) against the run line (-52.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals are batting just .106 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 118 of 1,756 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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