- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Padres Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Twins / Padres TV Channel: FS1 | BSNO | PDTV
The Minnesota Twins (+135) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on Monday, August 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Twins are 70-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 64-61 ATS.
Twins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Zebby Matthews 1-0, 3.60 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael King 10-6, 3.22 ERA
Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -175 | O 7 +100 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +145 | U 7 -120 | -160 |
Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+30.50 Units / 152% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 47% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 47 games (+27.10 Units / 58% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 36 of his last 49 games (+14.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+13.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.10 Units / 32% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+12.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 104 games (+11.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 away games (+1.35 Units / 8% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 48 games (+14.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 93 games (+8.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 games at home (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+5.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 61-63 against the Run Line (-3.5 Units / -2.23% ROI).
- 70-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 1.22% ROI
- 63-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 2.07% ROI
- 55-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.6 Units / -10.76% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 64-61 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 3.22% ROI).
- 70-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 1.79% ROI
- 66-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.85 Units / 2.82% ROI
- 57-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.1 Units / -11.62% ROI
Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael King (SD) | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Zebby Matthews (MIN) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zebby Matthews has limited playing time.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael King has a strikeout rate of 34% (74 SO in 216 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .202 (39-for-193) against Michael King when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 88th Percentile.
43% of Michael King’s called strikeouts are inside this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 88th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 59% of Michael King’s pitches in the zone (1,136/1,922) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Twins are 60-21 (.741) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
The Twins are 128-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 196-4 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 48-33 (.593) after a home win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Padres are 51-4 (.927) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
The Padres are 23-16 (.590) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Padres are just 13-23 (.361) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Padres are 9-47 (.161) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .772 (3,447 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .800 (2,257 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Twins hitters have drawn 81 walks in 1,237 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins hitters are slugging .461 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .282 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 827 strikeouts in 4,712 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,053 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Padres hitters have just 235 strikeouts in 1,354 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Twins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins pitchers have walked 317 of 4,586 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Padres pitchers over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Padres pitchers this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
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