- The Twins are -115 favorites vs the Padres
- Twins vs Padres Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Padres TV Channel: BSNO | PDTV
The Minnesota Twins (-115) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-105) on Tuesday, August 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Twins are 70-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 65-61 ATS.
Twins vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 12-5, 3.50 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Martin Perez 3-5, 4.55 ERA
Twins vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +150 | O 8 -115 | -115 |
| Padres | +1.5 -185 | U 8 -105 | -105 |
Twins vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 21 games (+29.50 Units / 140% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 48 games (+26.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 43 games (+16.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+15.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+13.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 35 games (+12.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 59 games (+13.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 105 games (+10.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 49 games (+8.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.15 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 away games (+0.35 Units / 2% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 49 games (+15.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 94 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+6.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+6.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 61-64 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -3.15% ROI).
- 70-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 0.65% ROI
- 64-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.8 Units / 2.79% ROI
- 55-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -11.47% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 65-61 against the Run Line (+6.3 Units / 4.03% ROI).
- 71-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 2.36% ROI
- 67-57 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.85 Units / 3.52% ROI
- 57-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.2 Units / -12.31% ROI
Padres vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez (SD) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .178 (40-for-225) against Bailey Ober this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .133 (27-for-203) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of just .241 (49 Total Bases / 203 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .360 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (41/131) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .711 (69 Total Bases / 97 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .358 (53-for-148) against Martin Perez versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: .254 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 50% of the time (336/672) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 49 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (98/596) against Martin Perez since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 114 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Twins are 25-93 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are 57-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Twins are 196-4 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are 18-106 (.145) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Padres are 67-54 (.554) after a road win since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Padres are 41-28 (.594) after a win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Padres are 23-16 (.590) after a road win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Padres are 9-47 (.161) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .769 (1,510 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .756 (8,212 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .325 (12,604 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Twins hitters are slugging .461 at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .282 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Padres hitters have just 236 strikeouts in 1,357 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 830 strikeouts in 4,746 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 594 strikeouts in 3,389 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 319 of 4,620 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 66 of 1,111 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Padres pitchers this month (16 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (6,973 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
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