- The Twins are -120 favorites vs the Pirates
- Twins vs Pirates Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Twins / Pirates TV Channel: BSNO | SNPT
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) on Saturday, June 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Twins are 33-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 35-28 ATS.
Twins vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 2-0, 3.07 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Carmen Mlodzinski 0-2, 6.76 ERA
Twins vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -105 | -125 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -115 | +105 |
Twins vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 19 away games (+27.80 Units / 146% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+13.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+10.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+14.40 Units / 144% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+8.90 Units / 74% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.79 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 43 games (+5.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 27 games (+11.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+9.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.60 Units / 38% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 28-35 against the Run Line (-10.8 Units / -13.03% ROI).
- 33-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.65 Units / -4.42% ROI
- 27-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -12.01% ROI
- 32-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 3.08% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 35-28 against the Run Line (+4.51 Units / 5.38% ROI).
- 30-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.05 Units / -5.53% ROI
- 32-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 3.73% ROI
- 27-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.57 Units / -10.99% ROI
Pirates vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Pirates vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Kirilloff (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Pirates vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Pirates vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) | 1.5 -130 | 1.5 +100 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -160 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Simeon Woods Richardson has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last four games dating back to May 17th — Corbin Burnes has the longest active streak at 6.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (20/60) against Simeon Woods Richardson in two-strike counts this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 17 of Simeon Woods Richardson’s 80 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (27/147) against Simeon Woods Richardson this season — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 24% — ninth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carmen Mlodzinski has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (22/30) — tied for 14th highest among among 105 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — 87th Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has a first-pitch strike rate of 73% (22/30) over the last 14 days — tied for 11th highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — 90th Percentile.
Carmen Mlodzinski has thrown breaking pitches 61% of the time (20/33) against right-handed batters over the past seven days (3 games) — 5th highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 33% — 95th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 50% of Carmen Mlodzinski’s pitches (18/36) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — tied for 10th lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 61% — 12th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Twins are 16-87 (.155) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Twins are 167-4 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Twins are just 12-17 (.414) after a loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Twins are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Pirates are 19-11 (.633) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Pirates are just 69-96 (.418) after a win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Pirates are just 11-15 (.423) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Pirates are 17-2 (.895) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .763.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have drawn 31 walks in 590 PA’s (5%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins are batting just .153 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have 32 extra-base hits out of 66 total hits (48%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,038 PA’s) at home this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 48 strikeouts in 115 PA’s (42%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 176 strikeouts in 497 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 19 extra-base hits out of 83 total hits (just 23%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates hitters have 1,154 strikeouts in 4,570 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 164 of 2,326 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates have won 42% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,383 of 14,913 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.80 (1251.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Pirates vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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