- The Red Sox are -210 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Red Sox TV Channel: TWTV | NESN | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (+170) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-210) on Sunday, May 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Twins are 14-20 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 17-18 ATS.
Twins vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 0-3, 5.60 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Crochet 3-2, 2.06 ERA
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -118 | O 8.5 -105 | +170 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -102 | U 8.5 -115 | -210 |
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 64.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Twins vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 away games (+12.35 Units / 49% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.90 Units / 272% ROI)
- Brooks Lee has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Narvaez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+23.50 Units / 235% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+11.10 Units / 111% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 56% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+10.30 Units / 103% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 56% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+11.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 27 games (+6.15 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+5.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.70 Units / 13% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 17-17 against the Run Line (+0.65 Units / 1.55% ROI).
- 14-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.45 Units / -22.72% ROI
- 11-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -29.61% ROI
- 20-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 21.27% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 17-18 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 18-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -10.51% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -9.47% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 1.56% ROI
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kristian Campbell (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Crochet (BOS) | 6.5 -125 | 6.5 -105 |
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Paddack has a strike rate of just 54% (46/86) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Chris Paddack has a strikeout rate of just 10% (4 SO in 41 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Chris Paddack allowed a slugging percentage of .500 (55 Total Bases / 110 ABs) on low non-fastballs in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .316 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .098 (5-for-51) against Chris Paddack with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: .171 — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .067 (1-for-15) against Garrett Crochet on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has a strikeout rate of 39% (75 SO in 195 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has allowed an OBP of just .206 (63 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 96th Percentile.
Garrett Crochet has thrown elevated pitches 53% of the time (93/175) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 1-85 (.012) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Twins are just 17-34 (.333) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 0-15 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Twins were 40-18 (.690) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 40-153 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Red Sox are 11-1 (.917) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Red Sox are 59-12 (.831) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 16-35 (.314) against the run line (-37.2% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Red Sox (ninth best runs scored) today.
Twins hitters struck out 1,274 times in 4,710 PA’s (27%) against RHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins have scored 0.71 runs per game (24/34) in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.42.
The Twins batted just .150 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 27% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .379 in hitter’s counts since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 7% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Twins vs Red Sox and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
