- The Twins are +100 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Twins / Royals TV Channel: TWTV | FDKC
The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-120) on Thursday, April 10, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Twins are 4-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 5-7 ATS.
Twins vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 0-1, 12.16 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 0-2, 4.66 ERA
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -118 | +100 |
| Royals | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -102 | -120 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Wallner has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+7.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 away games (+5.70 Units / 142% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games at home (+15.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 77% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.55 Units / 32% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+16.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 145 games (+9.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 5-7 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -12.54% ROI).
- 4-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.9 Units / -37.46% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -3.8% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.65 Units / -4.91% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 5-7 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -17.19% ROI).
- 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -7.69% ROI
- 5-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.5 Units / -19.23% ROI
- 7-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 11.19% ROI
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (58/175) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts since last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 34% (161/469) against Bailey Ober in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .146 (45-for-308) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober threw fastballs up 79% of the time (840/1,063) in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha threw his breaking pitches for a strike just 47% (212/452) of the time in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 29% of Michael Wacha’s breaking pitches (136/474) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Michael Wacha had a strike rate of just 63% (794/1,267) against right-handed batters in the 2024 season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — sixth Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 47% of the time (385/817) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 96th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins were just 32-46 (.410) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Royals (sixth best runs allowed) today.
The Twins are just 15-31 (.326) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 4-7 (.364) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Twins are just 4-8 (.333) this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 14-81 (.147) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 5-31 (.139) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Royals are just 4-54 (.069) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .164 (110 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .307.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .368 (110 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .688.
The Twins are batting just .107 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Twins hitters have 8 extra-base hits out of 11 total hits (73%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .286 (6,124 PA’s) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have just 314 strikeouts in 1,583 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Royals are batting .288 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers walked 433 of 6,078 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 909 of 12,548 batters (7%) since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .293 against Twins pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Twins pitchers have walked 33 of 442 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 1.98 (27.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.42 (726.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
More MLB Reading:
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