- The Twins are -110 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins vs Royals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Twins / Royals TV Channel: TWTV | FDKC
The Minnesota Twins (-110) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-110) on Wednesday, April 9, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Twins are 3-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 5-6 ATS.
Twins vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 0-1, 4.66 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 1-0, 3.38 ERA
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 +100 | -110 |
| Royals | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -120 | -110 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Harrison Bader has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+13.30 Units / 222% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 away games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.60 Units / 82% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.45 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Massey has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games at home (+15.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Strikeouts Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.95 Units / 62% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+16.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.05 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.35 Units / 5% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 33 games (+17.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+9.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 145 games (+9.00 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 games at home (+8.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 4-7 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -25.09% ROI).
- 3-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -47.1% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 5.86% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.65 Units / -13.47% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 5-6 against the Run Line (-1.25 Units / -7.96% ROI).
- 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.4% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -11.02% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 4.03% ROI
Royals vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Royals vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Royals vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ty France (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Royals vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +120 |
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters had a swing rate of 57% (708/1,249) against Joe Ryan in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan had a strike rate of 71% (884/1,249) vs left-handed batters in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters swung at 55% of Joe Ryan’s pitches (1,476/2,683) in 2023 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .389 (21 GB hits out of 54 GBs) against Joe Ryan with runners in scoring position since the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (9/76) against Seth Lugo this season — lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed an OBP of .444 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .284 — fifth Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch strike rate of 78% (35/45) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (9/76) against Seth Lugo this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 15-31 (.326) vs top 10 scoring offenses since last season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Twins are just 1-75 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Twins were 40-18 (.690) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Royals (12th best runs scored) today.
The Twins are 63-29 (.685) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 4-54 (.069) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Royals are just 14-80 (.149) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .300.
The Royals were 42-16 (.724) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Twins (11th best runs scored) today.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .163 (104 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .339 (104 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Twins hitters have 7 extra-base hits out of 10 total hits (70%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Twins are batting just .103 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of .392 (81 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .304 (3,109 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .286 (6,124 PA’s) on the road since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 202 of 2,995 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers walked 433 of 6,078 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 1.98 (27.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.55.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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