- The Twins are -120 favorites vs the Royals
- Twins / Royals TV Channel: BSNO | BSKC
The Minnesota Twins (-125) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Thursday, March 28, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
Twins vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +135 | O 8 +100 | -125 |
| Royals | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -120 | +105 |
Twins vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s game with 53.5% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+1.90 Units / 190% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Runs Over in his last away game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the RBIs Over in his last away game (+1.80 Units / 180% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Over in his last away game (+1.60 Units / 160% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 83 away games (+11.39 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.41 Units / 21% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 39 games at home (+14.97 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+14.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+11.08 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+10.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez had a strikeout rate of 54% (13/24) in close and late situations in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
67% of Pablo Lopez’s called strikeouts were low in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 97th Percentile.
Opposing hitters had a chase rate of 37% (73/195) against Pablo Lopez when he was behind in the count in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez allowed an OBP of just .254 (393 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .309 — 97th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 31% (242/783) against Cole Ragans in the 2023 season — tied for 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 94th Percentile.
Cole Ragans had a strikeout rate of 39% (28/72) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 95th Percentile.
Cole Ragans allowed an OPS of just .556 (299 PA’s) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .728 — 98th Percentile.
Cole Ragans allowed a slugging percentage of just .217 (44 Total Bases / 203 ABs) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .310 — 97th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins were 16-50 (.242) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Twins were 33-11 (.750) when they scored in the first inning in 2023 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Twins are just 13-27 (.325) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were 11-60 (.155) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2023 — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .101.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals were just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 11-83 (.117) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 9-15 (.375) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Royals were just 7-43 (.140) when their opponents score in the first inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters struck out 1,274 times in 4,710 PA’s (27%) against RHP in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters hit 137 extra-base hits out of 288 total hits (48%) when the pitcher was behind in the count in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Twins hitters struck out 380 times in 1,509 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters slugged just .164 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals were just 0-1 (.000) against the run line (-100.0% ROI) after a win as favorites in 2023 — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers walked 443 of 6,028 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers walked 99 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in the 2023 season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Freddy Fermin (Kansas City Royals): Finger, Out
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- John McMillon (Kansas City Royals): Forearm, Out
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Out
- Brad Keller (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Back, Out
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, Out
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