- The Guardians are -250 favorites vs the White Sox
- White Sox vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- White Sox / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | NSCH
The Chicago White Sox (+185) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-225) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the White Sox are 25-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 46-38 ATS.
White Sox vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- White Sox starting pitcher: Jared Shuster 1-0, 3.15 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 7-4, 3.04 ERA
White Sox vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| White Sox | +1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -110 | +185 |
| Guardians | -1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -110 | -225 |
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 70.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for White Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best White Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Paul DeJong has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 23 away games (+29.05 Units / 126% ROI)
- Luis Robert has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.45 Units / 39% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)
White Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 40 away games (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 away games (+6.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 84 games (+16.62 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 52 of their last 84 games (+16.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 70 games (+15.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 84 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games at home (+11.25 Units / 30% ROI)
White Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the White Sox are 41-47 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -9.69% ROI).
- 25-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.7 Units / -31.89% ROI
- 40-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.5 Units / -8.83% ROI
- 44-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.42% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 46-38 against the Run Line (+13.3 Units / 13.05% ROI).
- 53-31 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.62 Units / 15.18% ROI
- 41-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.15 Units / 0.16% ROI
- 37-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.9 Units / -8.6% ROI
Guardians vs White Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Robert (CWS) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Eloy Jimenez (CWS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs White Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham (CWS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Andrew Benintendi (CWS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Eloy Jimenez (CWS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Luis Robert (CWS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Guardians vs White Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Luis Robert (CWS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs White Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -140 |
| Jared Shuster (CWS) | 2.5 +160 | 2.5 -210 |
White Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jared Shuster has a strike rate of just 55% (210/385) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jared Shuster has a strike rate of just 55% (210/385) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Jared Shuster has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 40% (29/72) of right-handed hitters this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Jared Shuster has allowed three-ball counts to 34% of batters they faced (31/90 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has averaged 90.1 MPH on fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — third Percentile.
Ben Lively has an average spin rate of 2000.4 RPM on sliders since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 2414.8 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of just 10% (29/304) against Ben Lively since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .133 (2-for-15) against Ben Lively — 9th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .247 — 90th Percentile.
White Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The White Sox are just 65-26 (.714) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The White Sox are just 13-12 (.520) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The White Sox are just 73-10 (.880) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.
The White Sox are just 15-48 (.238) after a loss this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the White Sox
The Guardians are 27-10 (.730) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Guardians are 9-19 (.321) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Guardians are 16-12 (.571) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Guardians are 183-6 (.968) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
White Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .299 (2,145 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
White Sox hitters have an OPS of just .654 (7,022 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .722.
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .216 (4,845 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
White Sox hitters have an OBP of just .285 (7,022 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,997 strikeouts in 10,951 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians have a winning percentage of 73% at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
White Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
White Sox pitchers have walked 328 of 3,354 batters (10%) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the White Sox have won just just 3% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
White Sox pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against White Sox pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Guardians have allowed 0.76 runs per game (64/84) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Guardians vs. White Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Ankle, 15-Day IL
- Xzavion Curry (Cleveland Guardians): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Joey Cantillo (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- Angel Martinez (Cleveland Guardians): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- George Valera (Cleveland Guardians): Hamstring, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Eloy Jimenez (Chicago White Sox): Thigh, Day-To-Day
- Yasmani Grandal (Chicago White Sox): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Matt Foster (Chicago White Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jake Eder (Chicago White Sox): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Jesse Scholtens (Chicago White Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Drohan (Chicago White Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Liam Hendriks (Chicago White Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jimmy Lambert (Chicago White Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Edgar Navarro (Chicago White Sox): Elbow, Out
- Davis Martin (Chicago White Sox): Elbow, Out
- Max Stassi (Chicago White Sox): Hip, 10-Day IL
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