The New York Yankees (+200) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Thursday, March 21, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in North Port, FL.
This season, the Yankees are 1-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 0-1 ATS.
Yankees vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +200 |
| Braves | -250 |
Yankees vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Thursday‘s matchup with 58.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Hits Over in his last game (+1.80 Units / 180% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Franchy Cordero has hit the Runs Over in his last away game (+1.55 Units / 155% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Singles Under in 4 of his last 6 away games (+1.50 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Braden Shewmake has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last game (+1.35 Units / 135% ROI)
- Sam Hilliard has hit the RBIs Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Yankees are 1-0 against the Run Line (+1.14 Units / 114% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 58.82% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 86.96% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -100% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Braves are 0-1 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 52.08% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +1 Units / 86.96% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -100% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has averaged 79.6 MPH on sliders since the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — fourth Percentile.
Nestor Cortes’ lowest spin rate on fastballs since the 2022 season is 1853.0 RPM — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1212.5
Nestor Cortes’ lowest spin rate on fastballs since the 2021 season is 1853.0 RPM — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 1124.1
Nestor Cortes has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH on the 206 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2021 season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 87.4.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 35% of the time (228/658) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 43% of the time (1,227/2,842) in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 36% of the time (253/706) on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton threw his curveball 46% of the time (664/1,432) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Yankees are 19-17 (.528) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Yankees are 73-26 (.737) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Yankees are 108-28 (.794) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Yankees are 44-48 (.478) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .363.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Braves are 46-41 (.529) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Braves are 164-34 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Braves were 5-2 (.714) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Braves were 68-34 (.667) after a win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees batted just .227 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees hitters had a groundball batting average of just .212 in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Yankees hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,359 of their 5,973 plate appearances (23%) in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves batted .326 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Braves hitters slugged .615 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Braves hitters slugged .501 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .845 (6,249 PA’s) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in 65% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents batted just .234 against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Braves vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Out
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Penn Murfee (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Eli White (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Jackson Stephens (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wandy Peralta (New York Yankees): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Calf, Out
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