- The Yankees are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Yankees vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Yankees / Guardians TV Channel: TBS | truT | Max
The New York Yankees (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Thursday, October 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Yankees are 99-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 84-84 ATS.
Yankees vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt 5-5, 2.89 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 2-2, 2.33 ERA
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +150 | O 7 +105 | -115 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | U 7 -125 | -105 |
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Trevino has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 36 games (+19.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 36 games (+16.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+15.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 36 games (+12.95 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 29 games (+31.80 Units / 110% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 50 games (+11.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 83 away games (+19.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 111 games (+18.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 23 away games (+10.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 83 away games (+8.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+4.25 Units / 27% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 76 games (+18.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 79 games at home (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 78 games at home (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+4.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.10 Units / 39% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 87-81 against the Run Line (+11.05 Units / 5.52% ROI).
- 99-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -3.46% ROI
- 88-74 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.15 Units / 3.32% ROI
- 74-88 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.6 Units / -12.25% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 84-84 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 0.87% ROI).
- 95-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.55 Units / 4.4% ROI
- 72-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.55 Units / -11.66% ROI
- 85-72 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.55 Units / 3% ROI
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1200 |
Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clarke Schmidt (NYY) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Matthew Boyd (CLE) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Clarke Schmidt since last season is 382.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 398.5
Hitters have swung at 45% of Clarke Schmidt’s pitches (42/93) with two-strikes in his last three starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 59% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 19% (87/451) against Clarke Schmidt since the 2022 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt had a strike rate of just 59% (274/465) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Boyd has limited playing time.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 122-36 (.772) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Yankees are 79-23 (.775) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
The Yankees are 150-11 (.932) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Yankees are 225-16 (.934) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 147-4 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are 90-26 (.776) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Guardians are 40-174 (.187) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Guardians are 65-19 (.774) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 495 walks in 4,525 PA’s (11%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters drew 379 walks in 3,617 PA’s (10%) against starting pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a groundball batting average of just .224 since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Guardians have barrels in 4% of PA’s since last season (459/12,023) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 36% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .236 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .228 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
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