- The Yankees are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Yankees vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Yankees / Guardians TV Channel: TBS | truT | Max
The New York Yankees (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Friday, October 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Yankees are 99-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 85-84 ATS.
Yankees vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Gil 15-7, 3.50 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 3-10, 4.84 ERA
Yankees vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 -105 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -115 | +100 |
Yankees vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Trevino has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+17.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 37 games (+14.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+14.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 37 games (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 30 games (+30.80 Units / 103% ROI)
- Bo Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 games (+11.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+11.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- Gavin Williams has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.80 Units / 49% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 112 games (+19.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 84 away games (+18.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 away games (+7.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 away games (+3.05 Units / 18% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 77 games (+17.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 80 games at home (+13.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 79 games at home (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.10 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.75 Units / 67% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 87-82 against the Run Line (+10.05 Units / 4.99% ROI).
- 99-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.35 Units / -3.86% ROI
- 89-74 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.15 Units / 3.83% ROI
- 74-89 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.7 Units / -12.77% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 85-84 against the Run Line (+2.85 Units / 1.34% ROI).
- 96-73 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 4.83% ROI
- 73-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.55 Units / -11.05% ROI
- 85-73 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 2.39% ROI
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
Guardians vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Guardians vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
| Luis Gil (NYY) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Gil walked 77 of 637 batters (12%) in the 2024 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .189 (104-for-550) against Luis Gil since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Gil walked 36 of 242 batters (15%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters in the 2024 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted just .147 (30-for-204) against Luis Gil versus the 2-3-4 hitters in the 2024 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 50% (20/40) against Gavin Williams on low breaking pitches in the 2024 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
20 of Gavin Williams’ 73 breaking pitch strikeouts (27%) have been backdoor since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 95th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 45 of 357 left-handed batters (13%) since last season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 9% — seventh Percentile.
Gavin Williams has an ERA of 2.66 (71.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 4.05 — 93rd Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Yankees are 79-23 (.775) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .626.
The Yankees are 53-8 (.869) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Yankees are 150-11 (.932) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Yankees are 122-36 (.772) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Guardians are 65-19 (.774) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Guardians are 65-9 (.878) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .801.
The Guardians are 147-4 (.974) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Guardians are 219-6 (.973) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 495 walks in 4,525 PA’s (11%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 333 walks in 2,976 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters drew 672 walks in 6,245 PA’s (11%) in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .507 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers this season is 392.4 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 397.5
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Yankees pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
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