- The Yankees are -118 favorites vs the Mariners
- Yankees vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Yankees / Mariners TV Channel: YES | RTNW | MLBN
The New York Yankees (-118) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-102) on Wednesday, May 14, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA, WA.
This season, the Yankees are 24-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 20-21 ATS.
Yankees vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Will Warren 2-2, 4.75 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 0-0, 7.05 ERA
Yankees vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +145 | O 7.5 +100 | -118 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -175 | U 7.5 -120 | -102 |
Yankees vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+15.85 Units / 38% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+13.75 Units / 54% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+12.85 Units / 143% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.70 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+18.65 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+15.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Walks Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 78% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+5.02 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 42 games (+4.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 34 games (+3.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.10 Units / 38% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 29 games (+14.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games (+6.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 29 games (+4.00 Units / 11% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 21-21 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 4.46% ROI).
- 24-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.55 Units / -0.87% ROI
- 20-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -3.81% ROI
- 20-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.03 Units / -4.37% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 20-21 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -1.38% ROI).
- 23-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.36% ROI
- 25-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.55 Units / 21.33% ROI
- 14-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.82 Units / -30.39% ROI
Mariners vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trent Grisham (NYY) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -550 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mariners vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Mariners vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -235 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Warren (NYY) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
| Luis Castillo (SEA) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 40% of Will Warren’s pitches (261/659) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 47% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (52/161) against Will Warren on sliders this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 48% — third Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 57% of Will Warren’s pitches in the zone (184/320) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
Will Warren has struck out 34% (11/32) of left-handed batters he faced in his last two starts — 5th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 20% — 95th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has walked 12% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 8% — sixth Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 68% of the time (505/746) this season — 3rd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 48% — 96th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown fastballs 68% of the time (1,281/1,881) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 10% (9/91) against Luis Castillo over the last 14 days — lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are 89-29 (.754) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .623.
The Yankees are 48-28 (.632) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Mariners (first best runs allowed) today.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Mariners are 3-15 (.167) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Mariners are 167-3 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Mariners were 33-7 (.825) when they had 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .750.
The Mariners are 12-71 (.145) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 44% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Yankees hitters have an OBP of .429 (203 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners batted just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
The Mariners are batting just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Mariners hitters put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters struck out 1,172 times in 4,293 PA’s (27%) against RHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .262 (1,815 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
More MLB Reading:
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