Yankees vs Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 1

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Baltimore Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle during a baseball game against the San Francisco Giants in San Francisco, Saturday, June 3, 2023.
(AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 01, 2024, 11:01 AM
  • The Orioles are -160 favorites vs the Yankees
  • Yankees vs Orioles Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Yankees / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | AMZP | MLBN

The New York Yankees (+135) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-160) on Wednesday, May 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.

This season, the Yankees are 19-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 17-12 ATS.

Yankees vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Gil 1-1, 4.02 ERA
  • Orioles starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes 3-0, 2.55 ERA

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees+1.5 -150O 8.5 -115+135
Orioles -1.5 +125U 8.5 -105-160

Yankees vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 56.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+16.30 Units / 204% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+16.15 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Colton Cowser has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 17 games (+27.10 Units / 159% ROI)
  • Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+14.80 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Adley Rutschman has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+10.50 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 130 games (+25.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 79 of their last 135 games (+18.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 80 games (+12.26 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 80 games (+9.88 Units / 9% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 14-17 against the Run Line (-2.7 Units / -7.13% ROI).

  • 19-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 2.57% ROI
  • 12-18 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -22.45% ROI
  • 18-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.75 Units / 13.83% ROI

Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 17-12 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 26.57% ROI).

  • 19-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 8.08% ROI
  • 16-11 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 12.48% ROI
  • 11-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.6 Units / -20.75% ROI

Orioles vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge (NYY) 0.5 +260 0.5 -350
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) 0.5 +333 0.5 -450
Anthony Santander (BAL) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Juan Soto (NYY) 0.5 +525 0.5 -800

Orioles vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adley Rutschman (BAL) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) 0.5 -250 0.5 +195
Anthony Volpe (NYY) 0.5 -250 0.5 +190
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Anthony Santander (BAL) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Orioles vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge (NYY) 0.5 +115 0.5 -150
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Anthony Santander (BAL) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Adley Rutschman (BAL) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210

Orioles vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under

Luis Gil has walked 9 of 41 batters (22%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 9% — first Percentile.

Luis Gil has walked 11 of 69 right-handed batters (16%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 36% (44/123) against Luis Gil on fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.

Luis Gil has walked 10 of 45 batters (22%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (186/296) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 68% of the time (23/34) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (337/532) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 60% of the time (179/296) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles

The Yankees are 22-18 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.

The Yankees are 82-5 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .897.

The Yankees are 114-86 (.570) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .512.

The Yankees are 200-155 (.563) since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Orioles are 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.

The Orioles are 39-22 (.639) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .490.

The Orioles are 39-3 (.929) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .791.

Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,652 of their 7,170 plate appearances (23%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees have grounded into 37 double plays this season — most in MLB.

The Yankees are batting just .232 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Yankees hitters have 16 extra-base hits out of 77 total hits (just 21%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.

Orioles hitters are slugging .333 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.

The Orioles are 42-19 (.689) against the run line (31.9% ROI) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Orioles are batting .374 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .345.

The Orioles have barrels in 6% of PA’s this season (71/1,107) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .230.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.

Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 2.75 (118.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% against Orioles pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Orioles pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Orioles pitchers have won 43% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Orioles vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
  • John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
  • Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
  • Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
  • Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
  • Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
  • Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
  • DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
  • Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
  • Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
  • Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.