- The Yankees are -160 favorites vs the Pirates
- Yankees vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Yankees / Pirates TV Channel: YES | SNPT
The New York Yankees (-160) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) on Friday, April 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:12pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Yankees are 4-2 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 2-5 ATS.
Yankees vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Max Fried 0-0, 3.86 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 1-0, 1.50 ERA
Yankees vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +105 | O 7.5 -102 | -160 |
| Pirates | +1.5 -130 | U 7.5 -118 | +135 |
Yankees vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+30.50 Units / 508% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- Max Fried has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+7.40 Units / 59% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.05 Units / 117% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Mitch Keller has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 119 games (+19.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 77 away games (+16.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 away games (+9.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+4.80 Units / 74% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games at home (+11.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 123 games (+5.40 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+3.65 Units / 17% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 4-2 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 46.56% ROI).
- 4-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.55 Units / 18.45% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 28.68% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -37.04% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 2-5 against the Run Line (-3.25 Units / -36.72% ROI).
- 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -45.12% ROI
- 2-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -45.91% ROI
- 5-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 38.93% ROI
Pirates vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -285 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -1100 |
Pirates vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Pirates vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Pirates vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (298/504) against Max Fried since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (118/188) against Max Fried in two-strike counts since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 62% (113/183) against Max Fried in two-strike counts in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 59% (286/483) against Max Fried in the 2024 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .314 (77-for-245) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .915 (283 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .670 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .555 (141 Total Bases / 254 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OBP of .364 (272 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game in the 2024 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Yankees are 83-23 (.783) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Pirates (21st best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees are just 8-120 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .099.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Pirates were just 10-32 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .359.
The Pirates were just 7-44 (.137) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates were just 7-37 (.159) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Pirates are just 136-10 (.932) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 43% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .800 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Yankees hitters are slugging .633 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 7 strikeouts in 15 PA’s (47%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters struck out 7 times in 15 PA’s (47%) against LHP over the last 14 days of the regular season (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .077 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .298 (4,741 PA’s) against RHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% against Yankees pitchers this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 42% against the Yankees pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates have won 33% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers had 266 three-pitch strikeouts in the 2024 season — 3rd most in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Pirates pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates pitchers had 266 three-pitch strikeouts in the 2024 season — 3rd most in MLB.
More MLB Reading:
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