- The Yankees are -110 favorites vs the Rays
- Yankees vs Rays Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Yankees / Rays TV Channel: AMZP | FDFL
The New York Yankees (-105) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-115) on Thursday, April 17, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Yankees are 11-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 6-12 ATS.
Yankees vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Will Warren 1-0, 5.15 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 2-0, 3.71 ERA
Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +154 | O 9 -120 | -105 |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | U 9 +100 | -115 |
Yankees vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ben Rice has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+14.00 Units / 233% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Ben Rice has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+7.40 Units / 148% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.30 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Junior Caminero has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+13.50 Units / 150% ROI)
- Kameron Misner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Taylor Walls has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.30 Units / 92% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 96 of their last 176 games (+15.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 82 away games (+12.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 82 away games (+2.10 Units / 2% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 81 away games (+1.61 Units / 2% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 18 games (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 97 of their last 162 games (+27.96 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 162 games (+19.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 94 of their last 162 games (+18.80 Units / 10% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 9-9 against the Run Line (+1.35 Units / 6.89% ROI).
- 11-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 6.9% ROI
- 10-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 13.08% ROI
- 7-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -20.15% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 6-12 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -31.77% ROI).
- 8-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.45 Units / -17.55% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -8.73% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.6 Units / 3.07% ROI
Rays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -220 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Rays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jake Mangum (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Rays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -118 |
| Will Warren (NYY) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 27% (49/185) against Will Warren in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 32% (45/141) against Will Warren this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Will Warren’s pitches (92/263) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have not chased any of 32 first pitches out of the zone against Will Warren this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 16% — second Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taj Bradley allowed a slugging percentage of 1.014 (72 Total Bases / 71 ABs) when he was behind in the count in 2023 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .622 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 20% (5/25) against Taj Bradley in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Taj Bradley has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (21/45) over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — fourth Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 21% (35/163) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 136 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Yankees are 53-12 (.815) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .639.
The Yankees are 42-24 (.636) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Rays (eighth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees are 84-25 (.771) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .625.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Rays are 79-23 (.775) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Rays are just 0-7 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .025.
The Rays are 52-8 (.867) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .808.
The Rays were 70-1 (.986) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 250 walks in 2,094 PA’s (12%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Yankees hitters have drawn 107 walks in 844 PA’s (13%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters are slugging .836 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .581.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .283 in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters have 386 strikeouts in 1,532 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 71 of 542 batters (13%) this month (15 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 79 of 663 batters (12%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 23 of 159 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 42 of 652 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays pitchers have allowed three-ball counts to 15% of batters they faced (97/652 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Rays pitchers walked 439 of 5,994 batters (7%) in 2023 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
More MLB Reading:
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