- The Yankees are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Yankees vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Yankees / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | MLBN | YES | ESPN+
The New York Yankees (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Yankees are 60-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 47-54 ATS.
Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes 4-9, 4.00 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 10-5, 5.31 ERA
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +135 | O 9.5 -115 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -160 | U 9.5 -105 | +100 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+18.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 away games (+17.20 Units / 172% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 42 games (+16.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+15.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 28 games (+14.40 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 27 games (+26.10 Units / 97% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 40 games (+14.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+14.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.50 Units / 41% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games (+15.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games (+9.34 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 70 games (+9.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.50 Units / 23% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+10.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+7.30 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+6.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+5.90 Units / 16% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 54-50 against the Run Line (+10.1 Units / 8.28% ROI).
- 60-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -1.85% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 2.61% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.25 Units / -11.61% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 47-54 against the Run Line (-14.7 Units / -10.94% ROI).
- 54-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 0.91% ROI
- 48-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.35 Units / -3.92% ROI
- 48-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.5 Units / -4.04% ROI
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nestor Cortes (NYY) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has allowed a slugging percentage of .549 (96 Total Bases / 175 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — third Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has allowed an OPS of .878 (189 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .656 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (112/352) against Nestor Cortes this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .149 (20-for-134) against Nestor Cortes on low fastballs since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .273 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (166/277) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 39% (25/65) against Brayan Bello on breaking pitches this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 39% (25/65) against Brayan Bello on sliders this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (66/401) against Brayan Bello since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 11-15 (.423) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Yankees are 25-20 (.556) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Yankees are 71-9 (.888) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Yankees are 57-62 (.479) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .363.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 44-71 (.383) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Red Sox are just 3-113 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Red Sox are 107-7 (.939) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
The Red Sox are just 52-171 (.233) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 127 walks in 1,067 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 239 walks in 2,235 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 401 walks in 3,784 PA’s (11%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .238 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 334 strikeouts in 1,161 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .424 against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .436 against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .202 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
The Yankees have won 45% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .223 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 56 of 910 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 267 of 3,811 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox have allowed 8.17 runs per game (49/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.87 (1343.1 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Loaisiga (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Everson Pereira (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Giancarlo Stanton (New York Yankees): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Clayton Beeter (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Clarke Schmidt (New York Yankees): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Jon Berti (New York Yankees): Calf, 60-Day IL
- Ian Hamilton (New York Yankees): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Anthony Rizzo (New York Yankees): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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