- The Yankees are -170 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Yankees vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Yankees / Red Sox TV Channel: FOX
The New York Yankees (-175) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+145) on Saturday, June 14, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Yankees are 42-26 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 34-36 ATS.
Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 8-4, 2.87 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Hunter Dobbins 3-1, 4.26 ERA
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -105 | O 8.5 -115 | -175 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -105 | +145 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 58.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+11.10 Units / 278% ROI)
- Carlos Rodon has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trent Grisham has hit the Walks Over in his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 111% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Carlos Rodon has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 6 away games (+6.80 Units / 111% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+14.70 Units / 210% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Walks Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+10.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kristian Campbell has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.25 Units / 44% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.12 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 68 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 68 games (+9.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 33 games (+7.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 49 games (+5.01 Units / 9% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.71 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 53 games (+6.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+6.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.95 Units / 71% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 33-35 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -2.36% ROI).
- 42-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 4.35% ROI
- 30-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.9 Units / -11.99% ROI
- 36-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.07 Units / 4.07% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 34-36 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.74% ROI).
- 35-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.86 Units / -10.42% ROI
- 33-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.77 Units / -9.92% ROI
- 37-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.85 Units / 1.09% ROI
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +170 |
| DJ LeMahieu (NYY) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins (BOS) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Carlos Rodon (NYY) | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has allowed a SLG of just .294 this season — tied for fifth best among qualified SPs– 95th Percentile. He allowed a SLG of .435 last season — ninth worst among qualified SPs– 15th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed a SLG of just .291 vs right-handed batters this season — seventh best among qualified SPs– 91st Percentile. He allowed a SLG of .454 vs right-handed batters last season — sixth worst among qualified SPs– 10th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .167 (50-for-299) against Carlos Rodon this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.
Carlos Rodon has allowed a slugging percentage of just .333 (36 Total Bases / 108 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .533 — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .405 (15-for-37) against Hunter Dobbins’ elevated fastball this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .223 — first Percentile.
Hunter Dobbins has allowed a slugging percentage of .581 (36 Total Bases / 62 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .361 — second Percentile.
Opponents batting at the bottom of the order are hitting .339 (21-for-62) against Hunter Dobbins this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .234 — second Percentile.
Hunter Dobbins has allowed three-ball counts to 14% of batters he faced (29/208 PA’s) this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 96th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees were 50-31 (.617) on the road in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Yankees are 21-14 (.600) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .444.
The Yankees are 71-45 (.612) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 4-170 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 16-153 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .140.
The Red Sox are 8-5 (.615) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Yankees (third best runs scored) today.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 11% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .426 against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 26% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .234 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers walked 98 of 1,456 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
More MLB Reading:
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