- The Yankees are -125 favorites vs the Royals
- Yankees vs Royals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Yankees / Royals TV Channel: Amazon | FDKC | MLBN
The New York Yankees (-125) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+105) on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Yankees are 40-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 35-32 ATS.
Yankees vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt 2-3, 4.04 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Kris Bubic 5-3, 1.43 ERA
Yankees vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -120 | -125 |
| Royals | +1.5 -160 | U 9 +100 | +105 |
Yankees vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+15.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+12.00 Units / 150% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+11.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+8.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+8.05 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+14.50 Units / 242% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.45 Units / 51% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 43% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 65 games (+11.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 65 games (+9.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.17 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+6.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 46 games (+4.01 Units / 8% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 67 games (+26.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games at home (+12.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 43 games (+7.50 Units / 12% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 31-34 against the Run Line (-3.2 Units / -4.29% ROI).
- 40-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.75 Units / 3.55% ROI
- 29-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.7 Units / -10.87% ROI
- 34-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.12 Units / 2.94% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 35-32 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -5.7% ROI).
- 34-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 1.15% ROI
- 27-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.32 Units / -20.97% ROI
- 39-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.25 Units / 12.44% ROI
Royals vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Royals vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Cody Bellinger (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jac Caglianone (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
Royals vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Royals vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clarke Schmidt (NYY) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -105 |
| Kris Bubic (KC) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Clarke Schmidt has allowed an OPS of 1.194 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .566 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .375 (6-for-16) against Clarke Schmidt when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .199 — third Percentile.
The average home run distance against Clarke Schmidt since the 2023 season is 384.2 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 398.2
Clarke Schmidt had a strike rate of just 59% (274/465) in two strike counts in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kris Bubic has a strike rate of 71% (223/312) in two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .187 (40-for-214) against Kris Bubic this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 94th Percentile.
Kris Bubic has allowed a slugging percentage of just .257 (55 Total Bases / 214 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .168 (17-for-101) against Kris Bubic when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 87th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Yankees are 53-29 (.646) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season They play the Royals (sixth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 37-21 (.638) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams in the 2024 season They play the Tigers (fifth best runs allowed) today.
The Yankees were 48-10 (.828) when they scored in the first inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Yankees were 76-4 (.950) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Royals are just 19-91 (.173) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals were just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 2 or more home runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Royals are just 9-67 (.118) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .194.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters drew 221 walks in 1,808 PA’s (12%) against LHP in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .496 in righty-righty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Yankees hitters are slugging .466 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Yankees hitters have drawn walks in 12% of their PA’s against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters have put 42% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Royals are batting .185 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .148.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .680 (3,590 PA’s) against LHP since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in 2023 — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in 2023 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.50 (993.0 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
More MLB Reading:
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