Yankees vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 15

min read
Minnesota Twins' Max Kepler celebrates while crossing home plate to score the game-winning run against the San Diego Padres during the 11th inning of a baseball game Wednesday, May 10, 2023, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
(AP Photo/Abbie Parr)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 15, 2024, 11:00 AM
  • The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Yankees
  • Yankees vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Yankees / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | AMZP

The New York Yankees (+115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Wednesday, May 15, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.

This season, the Yankees are 28-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 22-19 ATS.

Yankees vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Yankees starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman 2-2, 3.83 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 4-2, 3.92 ERA

Yankees vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Yankees+1.5 -185O 8 -110+115
Twins -1.5 +150U 8 -110-135

Yankees vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 19 games (+18.40 Units / 97% ROI)
  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+15.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 23 away games (+10.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 23 away games (+10.25 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Under in 27 of his last 42 games (+9.05 Units / 18% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 17 games (+28.20 Units / 166% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+14.95 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.30 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Trevor Larnach has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 63% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+7.65 Units / 85% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+6.80 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.99 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 games (+11.50 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 games (+8.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.55 Units / 21% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 22-21 against the Run Line (+3.95 Units / 7.84% ROI).

  • 28-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.8 Units / 11.16% ROI
  • 18-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -15.2% ROI
  • 23-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 6.73% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 22-19 against the Run Line (+1.9 Units / 3.48% ROI).

  • 24-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 4.68% ROI
  • 20-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.68% ROI
  • 18-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.05 Units / -9.2% ROI

Twins vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge (NYY) 0.5 +250 0.5 -300
Juan Soto (NYY) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 0.5 +425 0.5 -600
Max Kepler (MIN) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650
Trevor Larnach (MIN) 0.5 +500 0.5 -750

Twins vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Juan Soto (NYY) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Max Kepler (MIN) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Anthony Volpe (NYY) 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Alex Verdugo (NYY) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Ryan Jeffers (MIN) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Twins vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge (NYY) 0.5 +125 0.5 -160
Max Kepler (MIN) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Carlos Correa (MIN) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Carlos Santana (MIN) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Twins vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcus Stroman (NYY) 4.5 -115 4.5 -115
Pablo Lopez (MIN) 6.5 +110 6.5 -145

Marcus Stroman has located his fastballs down 58% of the time (201/349) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.

Marcus Stroman has a strike rate of just 59% (454/763) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (69/123) against Marcus Stroman this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 98th Percentile.

Marcus Stroman has allowed three-ball counts to 30% of batters they faced (57/187 PA’s) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — first Percentile.

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 33% (42/127) against Pablo Lopez this season — 2nd best among in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has not walked any of the 72 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 37% (195/526) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has not walked any of the 72 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Yankees are 22-18 (.550) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.

The Yankees are 86-27 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .636.

The Yankees are 66-39 (.629) after a home win since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Yankees are 53-52 (.505) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .364.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Twins are 21-62 (.253) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .143.

The Twins are just 17-30 (.362) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 15-74 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .101.

The Twins are 90-1 (.989) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.

Yankees hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.

The Yankees are batting just .218 with two outs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.

Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,754 of their 7,614 plate appearances (23%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Yankees are batting just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

Twins hitters have 104 extra-base hits out of 236 total hits (44%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

The Twins are batting just .152 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.

Twins hitters have 137 extra-base hits out of 331 total hits (41%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Twins hitters have 50 extra-base hits out of 123 total hits (41%) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Yankees pitchers have won 100% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.

The Yankees have won 59% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .216 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Twins pitchers have walked 106 of 1,533 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Twins vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
  • Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
  • Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
  • Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
  • Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
  • Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
  • Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
  • Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
  • Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
  • Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
  • Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
  • Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
  • DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
  • Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
  • Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
  • Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
  • Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.