- Minnesota United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Sporting KC.
- Minnesota earned a 2-1 home win in a previous home fixture against Sporting.
- Why bettors should buy low on Minnesota United.
Before Saturday’s Western Conference meeting at the Allianz Field, I’m here to offer a Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC prediction.
Neither side enters this match in particularly good form. Minnesota returns home after a 2-0 road defeat against LAFC, their third defeat of the season.
As for Sporting, they’ve dropped six league matches in a row, including four consecutive one-goal defeats.
Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Saturday’s match.
MLS Odds – Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC
- Minnesota United Moneyline: -135
- Sporting KC Moneyline: +290
- Draw Moneyline: +300
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-190/+130)
MLS Predictions – Minnesota United vs. Sporting KC
Minnesota United Moneyline (-135)
Both teams enter this game as a negative regression candidate for the season, but Minnesota has actually run slightly unlucky at home.
United has a +3 goal differential at the Allianz Field compared to a +4.6 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
As for Sporting, they’ve posted terrible underlying metrics away from home.
Entering Saturday’s match, they’re sitting on a -2 road goal differential against a -6.7 expected goal differential.
Sample post-shot expected goals and bettors will find Kansas City has a -2 goal differential against a -6.5 psxGDiff, according to fbref.com.
In those seven road matches, they’ve earned results only three times.
One such loss came at Minnesota, who created 2.3 expected goals and 2.9 post-shot expected goals against Sporting, a bottom-six defense in MLS by non-penalty expected goals.
That’s going to put them in trouble against a Minnesota attack that has created at least two expected goals in four consecutive home matches.
Plus, Sporting’s attack is a prime regression candidate.
They’ve scored 23 non-penalty goals off 14.4 non-penalty expected and have received the fifth-most fortune in terms of opposing goalkeepers failing to stop shots.
As a result, take Minnesota to end their two-match winless run and claim all three points at home on Saturday.
Minnesota United Form
May 29 at LAFC: 0-2, L
May 25 at Colorado: 3-3, D
May 18 vs. Portland: 2-1, W
May 15 vs. LA Galaxy: 2-2, D
May 4 at Atlanta United: 2-1, W
Sporting KC Form
May 29 vs. Vancouver: 1-2, L
May 25 at Portland: 1-2, L
May 21 vs. FC Tulsa: 4-0, W (U.S. Open Cup)
May 18 at Austin: 2-3, L
May 11 vs. Houston: 1-2, L
Upcoming MLS Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| NYCFC | San Jose Earthquakes | May. 31 | 7:30 PM | Yankee Stadium |
| D.C. United | Toronto FC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Audi Field |
| Inter Miami | St. Louis SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Chase Field |
| NY Red Bulls | Orlando SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Red Bull Arena |
| Philadelphia Union | Montreal | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Subaru Park |
| Chicago Fire | LA Galaxy | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Soldier Field |
| Minnesota United | Sporting KC | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Allianz Field |
| Nashville SC | New England Revolution | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | GEODIS Park |
| Real Salt Lake | Austin FC | Jun. 1 | 9:30 PM | America First Field |
| LAFC | FC Dallas | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BMO Stadium |
| Portland Timbers | Houston Dynamo | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | Providence Park |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | Colorado Rapids | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BC Place |
| Atlanta United | Charlotte FC | Jun. 2 | 2:45 PM | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |
MLS Eastern Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Inter Miami | 10-4-3 | 34 | 15 |
| FC Cincinnati | 10-3-3 | 33 | 7 |
| NYCFC | 8-2-5 | 26 | 3 |
| NY Red Bulls | 7-5-3 | 26 | 6 |
| Columbus Crew | 6-6-2 | 24 | 8 |
| Toronto FC | 7-2-7 | 23 | 0 |
| Charlotte FC | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Philadelphia Union | 4-7-4 | 19 | 4 |
| Nashville SC | 4-7-4 | 19 | -1 |
| D.C. United | 4-6-6 | 18 | -6 |
| Orlando City | 4-5-6 | 17 | -7 |
| Atlanta United | 4-4-7 | 16 | 2 |
| CF Montreal | 4-4-7 | 16 | -12 |
| Chicago Fire | 2-6-8 | 12 | -13 |
| NE Revolution | 2-1-10 | 7 | -17 |
MLS Western Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Real Salt Lake | 8-6-2 | 30 | 13 |
| LA Galaxy | 7-7-2 | 28 | 5 |
| LAFC | 8-3-4 | 27 | 8 |
| Minnesota United | 7-4-3 | 25 | 5 |
| Austin FC | 6-5-5 | 23 | 0 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 6-4-5 | 22 | 4 |
| Colorado Rapids | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Houston Dynamo | 6-3-6 | 21 | 0 |
| Portland Timbers | 5-4-7 | 19 | 0 |
| Seattle Sounders | 4-6-6 | 18 | 0 |
| St. Louis SC | 3-7-4 | 16 | -2 |
| FC Dallas | 3-4-7 | 13 | -6 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2-10 | 11 | -11 |
| Sporting KC | 2-5-8 | 11 | -5 |
Soccer Odds at BetMGM
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