- D.C. United is a -0.5-goal favorite against Chicago Fire.
- United captured a 4-0 head-to-head win when these sides met last September.
- Why bettors should expect a bounce-back result for the hosts.
Seeking an end to their two-game losing streak, the D.C. United host the Chicago Fire on Saturday at Audi Field.
Most recently, D.C. traveled to Miami and fell 1-0 to this season’s title favorites. That marks their second consecutive defeat after falling 4-1 to the New York Red Bulls.
As for Chicago, they’ve dropped four games in a row and haven’t picked up a straight up win since April 6 against Houston.
Here’s a look at the MLS odds and my prediction for Saturday’s Eastern Conference game.
MLS Odds – D.C. United vs. Chicago Fire
- D.C. United Moneyline: -160
- Chicago Fire Moneyline: +360
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-175)
MLS Predictions – D.C. United vs. Chicago Fire
D.C. United Moneyline (-160)
Don’t let the recent results fool you — United have run super unlucky based on their underlying metrics.
They lost 1-0 at Miami, but they finished the match level on both expected and post-shot expected goals, per fbref.com.
In their most recent home match, the final expected goals tally was even more head-scratching.
United lost 4-1 at home to NY Red Bulls, but they won the expected goals battle 3.0 to 2.3 and the post-shot expected goals battle 3.4 to 3.0, per fotmob.com.
That renders this an outstanding buy-low spot against a Fire side with a horrendous record away from home.
Chicago is 0-3-3 (W-D-L) away from the Windy City this season and possesses a -0.8 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Plus, D.C. absolutely bossed them in the previous meeting at Audi Field.
United captured a 4-0 win over the Fire back in September while dominating the underlying metrics.
Expected goals finished 1.9-1.2, post-shot expected goals finished 2.3 to 0.9, and big scoring chances finished 4-1, all in favor of the hosts.
As a result, I’ll back United to end their losing streak with a convincing home win on Saturday against one of the East’s worst sides.
D.C. United Form
May 18 at Inter Miami: 0-1, L
May 15 vs. NY Red Bulls: 1-4, L
May 11 at Atlanta: 3-2, W
May 4 vs. Philadelphia: 2-2, D
April 27 vs. Seattle: 2-1, W
Chicago Fire Form
May 18 vs. Columbus: 1-3, L
May 15 vs. Charlotte: 0-1, L
May 11 at St. Louis: 1-3, L
May 4 vs. New England: 0-1, L
April 27 vs. Atlanta United: 0-0, D
D.C. United vs. Chicago Fire Head-to-Head Record
Sept. 2, 2023: D.C. United, 4-0 (Audi Field)
April 1, 2023: Draw, 0-0 (Soldier Field)
June 18, 2022: Chicago Fire, 1-0 (Soldier Field)
March 12, 2022: Chicago Fire, 2-0 (Audi Field)
Sept. 15, 2021: D.C. United, 3-0 (Audi Field)
MLS Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| NYCFC | San Jose Earthquakes | May. 31 | 7:30 PM | Yankee Stadium |
| D.C. United | Toronto FC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Audi Field |
| Inter Miami | St. Louis SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Chase Field |
| NY Red Bulls | Orlando SC | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Red Bull Arena |
| Philadelphia Union | Montreal | Jun. 1 | 7:30 PM | Subaru Park |
| Chicago Fire | LA Galaxy | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Soldier Field |
| Minnesota United | Sporting KC | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | Allianz Field |
| Nashville SC | New England Revolution | Jun. 1 | 8:30 PM | GEODIS Park |
| Real Salt Lake | Austin FC | Jun. 1 | 9:30 PM | America First Field |
| LAFC | FC Dallas | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BMO Stadium |
| Portland Timbers | Houston Dynamo | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | Providence Park |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | Colorado Rapids | Jun. 1 | 10:30 PM | BC Place |
| Atlanta United | Charlotte FC | Jun. 2 | 2:45 PM | Mercedes-Benz Stadium |
MLS Eastern Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Inter Miami | 10-4-3 | 34 | 15 |
| FC Cincinnati | 10-3-3 | 33 | 7 |
| NYCFC | 8-2-5 | 26 | 3 |
| NY Red Bulls | 7-5-3 | 26 | 6 |
| Columbus Crew | 6-6-2 | 24 | 8 |
| Toronto FC | 7-2-7 | 23 | 0 |
| Charlotte FC | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Philadelphia Union | 4-7-4 | 19 | 4 |
| Nashville SC | 4-7-4 | 19 | -1 |
| D.C. United | 4-6-6 | 18 | -6 |
| Orlando City | 4-5-6 | 17 | -7 |
| Atlanta United | 4-4-7 | 16 | 2 |
| CF Montreal | 4-4-7 | 16 | -12 |
| Chicago Fire | 2-6-8 | 12 | -13 |
| NE Revolution | 2-1-10 | 7 | -17 |
MLS Western Conference Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Real Salt Lake | 8-6-2 | 30 | 13 |
| LA Galaxy | 7-7-2 | 28 | 5 |
| LAFC | 8-3-4 | 27 | 8 |
| Minnesota United | 7-4-3 | 25 | 5 |
| Austin FC | 6-5-5 | 23 | 0 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 6-4-5 | 22 | 4 |
| Colorado Rapids | 6-4-6 | 22 | -1 |
| Houston Dynamo | 6-3-6 | 21 | 0 |
| Portland Timbers | 5-4-7 | 19 | 0 |
| Seattle Sounders | 4-6-6 | 18 | 0 |
| St. Louis SC | 3-7-4 | 16 | -2 |
| FC Dallas | 3-4-7 | 13 | -6 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 3-2-10 | 11 | -11 |
| Sporting KC | 2-5-8 | 11 | -5 |
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