Champions League Odds: My Napoli vs. Real Madrid Prediction

min read
Napoli's Victor Osimhen, right, reacts after a missed scoring opportunity during the Champions League group C soccer match between SC Braga and SCC Napoli at the Municipal stadium in Braga, Portugal, Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023.
(Luis Vieira/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Oct 02, 2023, 3:56 PM
  • Both teams earned all three points in Matchday 1.
  • Real Madrid have dropped points only once in all competitions this season.
  • Napoli finished 4-0-1 (W-L-D) at home in UCL last season.

Ahead of Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League action, I’m set to offer a Napoli vs. Real Madrid prediction. 

The sides sit level on points after Matchday 1. Real Madrid earned a home victory against Union Berlin, while Napoli captured all three points in Portugal against Benfica. 

Oddsmakers believe there’s little separating these two sides. 

Napoli is a +160 home underdog on the three-way moneyline, while the draw and Real Madrid are priced at +260 and +150, respectively. 

The total for Tuesday’s match is set at 2.5 goals, juiced -150 to the over. 

Napoli vs. Real Madrid  Champions League Prediction

Soccer odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Total Over 2.5 Goals (-150) 

This is admittedly a steep price to lay, but there’s evidence supporting a high-scoring clash. 

In their first eight La Liga matches, Real Madrid have played high-event games. 

The 2022 Champions League winners are averaging 2.84 expected goals in those eight matches, including three expected goals per 90 against fellow UCL sides Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid. 

In their most recent match – a trip to Girona – Madrid won 3-0 but surrendered 1.6 expected goals. 

Although they created 2.3 expected goals, bettors should expect some immediate negative defensive regression against a strong Napoli attack – second in Serie A in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Plus, Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti will miss some key defensive pieces. Both Eder Militao and David Alaba won’t feature, while star goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is also injured. 

Even with those pieces, Madrid struggled to defend away from home in last season’s Champions League. In trips to Celtic and RB Leipzig, Los Blancos surrendered 1.8 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

All that said, don’t believe the hype on this Napoli defense. 

Although they’re allowing only 0.49 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, they’ve yet to face a top-seven attack from last season. 

Travel back to their Champions League quarterfinal second leg against AC Milan – in which Napoli operated without center-back Kim Min-Jae – and bettors will find they surrendered 1.2 non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com. 

Given Madrid has Vinicius Jr. back in the lineup, their attack should flourish. 

Take over 2.5 goals so long as it remains available at -150 or better.

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.