- The Astros are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams, 7.29 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Luis Garcia, 1.80 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Washington Nationals (+155) visit The Ballpark of the Palm Beaches to take on the Houston Astros (-190) on Thursday, March 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in West Palm Beach.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Nationals vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Nationals are 11-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 10-9 ATS.
Nationals vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 9 -110 | +155 |
| Astros | -1.5 -105 | U 9 -110 | -190 |
Nationals vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s Spring Training matchup with 63.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Israel Pineda has hit the Singles Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- David Hensley has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Korey Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.90 Units / 195% ROI)
- J.J. Matijevic has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.45 Units / 173% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 27 away games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 25 away games (+2.50 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 14-7 against the Run Line (+5.25 Units / 18.82% ROI).
- 11-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.3 Units / 29.86% ROI
- 5-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -54.57% ROI
- 16-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.5 Units / 45.06% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 10-9 against the Run Line (+0.85 Units / 3.75% ROI).
- 10-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 14.34% ROI
- 7-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.2 Units / -29.67% ROI
- 12-7 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 20.57% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has located his breaking pitches down 88% of the time (668/757) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 53% (645/1,222) of the time since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his non-fastball low 89% of the time (1,087/1,222) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .487 (110 Total Bases / 226 ABs) on low non-fastballs since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 0 Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Garcia allowed a slugging percentage of .822 (60 Total Bases / 73 ABs) on low fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .411 (30-for-73) against Luis Garcia on low fastballs last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .115 (9 GB hits out of 78 GBs) against Luis Garcia with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 100th Percentile.
Luis Garcia allowed an OBP of just .203 (128 PA’s) with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 11-193 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Nationals are just 9-92 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 88-5 (.946) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 599 extra-base hits out of 1,870 total hits (just 32%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.89 (1445.1 IP) last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jose Altuve (Astros): The Houston Astros placed INF Jose Altuve on the 15-day injured list due to a thumb injury., D15
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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