Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 24

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 24, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat are -4.5 favorites vs. the Cavaliers
  • Total (Over/Under): 202.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | BSOH

The Cleveland Cavaliers visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EDT in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Cavaliers vs Heat Over/Under is 202.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Cavaliers are 34-33 against the spread, while the Heat are 33-36 against the spread.


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Cavaliers vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cleveland Cavaliers+3.5 -110O 202.5 -105+135
Miami Heat -3.5 -110U 202.5 -115-165

Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 59.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Cavaliers and Heat.

Heat vs Cavaliers Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Cavaliers will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 51.1% confidence.


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  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 80 games (+18.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 40 of their last 62 games (+14.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 25 of their last 34 games (+14.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 away games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 26 away games (+13.40 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 79 games (+24.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 100 games (+18.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 40 games (+18.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+17.95 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 39 games (+17.75 Units / 40% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Cavaliers have gone 34-33 (-2.3 Units / -2.99% ROI).

  • 43-27 against the Moneyline (+8.45 Units / 5.5% ROI)
  • 31-38 against the Over for game total points (-10.8 Units / -14.03% ROI)
  • 38-31 against the Under for game total points (+3.9 Units / 5.06% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 33-36 (-6.6 Units / -8.57% ROI).

  • 38-32 against the Moneyline (-3 Units / -2.44% ROI)
  • 25-45 against the Over for game total points (-24.5 Units / -31.82% ROI)
  • 45-25 against the Under for game total points (+17.5 Units / 22.73% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 79 games (-32.30 Units / -37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 99 games (-30.95 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 86 games (-27.00 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 39 games (-23.75 Units / -52% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 32 of their last 81 games (-23.00 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 82 games (-30.15 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 36 games (-20.20 Units / -48% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 82 games (-19.80 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 77 games (-19.00 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 82 games (-17.70 Units / -18% ROI)

Jump to:

Cleveland Cavaliers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Cavaliers are 30-9 (.769) when winning the rebounding margin this season — T-7th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 49.6 rebounds/game this season — 5th-lowest in the NBA.

The Cavaliers are 30-9 (.769) when winning the rebounding margin this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Cavaliers were 19-8 (.704) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Cavaliers are 39-18 (.684) when scoring 15 or more second chance points since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .539

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers

The Heat are 26-7 (.788) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .654

The Heat were 20-9 (.690) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .556

The Heat are 8-8 (.500) when scoring 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .548

The Heat were 10-1 (.909) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — 5th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .729

Injury Report: Heat vs. CavaliersSunday‘s Game, Mar. 24

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • Tristan Thompson (Cleveland Cavaliers): Suspension, Out
  • Ty Jerome (Cleveland Cavaliers): Ankle, Out

Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Stats & Trends

The Cavaliers had a TS% of 52% last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Cavaliers have made 13.6 three-pointers per game this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Cavaliers had 22.5 free throw attempts per game last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 23.5

The Cavaliers averaged 54.3 points per game (4,449 points/82 games) in the second half last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat have an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

The Heat are shooting 43% (368/859) in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 46%

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Cleveland Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Cavaliers averaged 33.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,745 rebounds/82 games) last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Cavaliers allowed 21.8 points in the paint per game (1,784 points/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 24.2

The Cavaliers have averaged 36.3 defensive rebounds per game (2,539 rebounds/70 games) this season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Cavaliers allowed an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (482 blocks/152 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (239 blocks/70 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (248 blocks/78 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8


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