Celtics vs Bucks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 11, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Bucks are -4.5 favorites vs. the Celtics
  • Total (Over/Under): 242.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT

The Boston Celtics visit Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Milwaukee, WI.

The Bucks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Celtics vs Bucks Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Celtics are 18-17 against the spread, while the Bucks are 15-21 against the spread.


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Celtics vs. Bucks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Boston Celtics O
Milwaukee Bucks U

Bucks vs Celtics Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Bucks will win Thursday‘s game with 64.9% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Celtics and Bucks, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Bucks vs Celtics Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 51.0% confidence.


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  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 55 of their last 86 games (+23.95 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 66 of their last 86 games (+22.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 59 of their last 98 games (+15.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 41 games (+13.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1Q Spread in 27 of their last 40 games (+12.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 63 games (+16.80 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 33 of their last 52 games (+13.35 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 42 of their last 68 games (+13.35 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have covered the 1H Spread in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Moneyline in 52 of their last 78 games (+9.45 Units / 5% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 18-17 (-0.65 Units / -1.6% ROI).

  • 29-8 against the Moneyline (+13.35 Units / 9.08% ROI)
  • 21-16 against the Over for game total points (+3.4 Units / 8.35% ROI)
  • 16-21 against the Under for game total points (-7.1 Units / -17.44% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Bucks have gone 15-21 (-8.2 Units / -20.02% ROI).

  • 25-12 against the Moneyline (-1.8 Units / -1.37% ROI)
  • 23-14 against the Over for game total points (+7.6 Units / 18.65% ROI)
  • 14-23 against the Under for game total points (-11.25 Units / -27.68% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 63 games (-23.05 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 26 of their last 61 games (-20.95 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 55 games (-20.75 Units / -9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 68 games (-19.75 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 20 of their last 44 games (-19.00 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 98 games (-26.35 Units / -24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 95 games (-21.20 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only covered the 3Q Spread in 22 of their last 60 games (-20.00 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 90 games (-18.10 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 29 of their last 60 games (-16.50 Units / -16% ROI)

Jump to:

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Celtics were 22-1 (.957) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Celtics are 27-5 (.844) when allowing fewer than 10 fastbreak points since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .567

The Celtics are 13-4 (.765) when they win the turnover margin this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

The Celtics were 25-9 (.735) when they win the turnover margin last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

The Bucks were 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Bucks were 47-8 (.855) when scoring 110 or more points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

The Bucks were 27-3 (.900) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Bucks were 25-7 (.781) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

Injury Report: Bucks vs. CelticsThursday‘s Game, Jan. 11

  • Jae Crowder (Milwaukee Bucks): Groin, Out
  • Pat Connaughton (Milwaukee Bucks): Ankle, Out
  • Kristaps Porzingis (Boston Celtics): Calf, Game Time Decision

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have made 16.1 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.5

The Celtics had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,087 assists/ 527 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Celtics have made 16.5 three-pointers per game at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.7

The Celtics have made 16.2 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.9

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 1.45 points per shot (2,332 points/1,608 shots) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.32

The Bucks have averaged 63.0 points per game (2,332 points/37 games) in the second half this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 57.4

The Bucks are shooting 51% (765/1,506) on the road this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Bucks have averaged 1.39 points per shot (4,591 points/3,309 shots) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.29

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 38.2 defensive rebounds per game (4,545 rebounds/119 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics averaged 38.0 defensive rebounds per game (3,112 rebounds/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have averaged 6.4 blocks per game (236 blocks/37 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Celtics have averaged 38.7 defensive rebounds per game (1,433 rebounds/37 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks have averaged 38.9 defensive rebounds per game (4,625 rebounds/119 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks allowed a TS% of 49% on the road last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 52%

The Bucks averaged 6.4 steals per game (521 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.