Heat vs Cavaliers Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 20

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 20, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Cavaliers are -2.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 203.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | WUAB

The Miami Heat visit Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse to take on the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

The Cavaliers are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Cavaliers Over/Under is 204.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 32-35 against the spread, while the Cavaliers are 34-31 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Cavaliers Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+2.5 -115O 204.5 -110+105
Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 -105U 204.5 -110-130

Cavaliers vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Cavaliers will win Wednesday‘s game with 60.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Cavaliers.

Cavaliers vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Cavaliers will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 54.5% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 away games (+26.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 77 games (+24.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 38 games (+20.70 Units / 47% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 60 of their last 100 games (+18.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 37 games (+17.90 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 51 of their last 78 games (+21.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 24 of their last 32 games (+14.95 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 39 of their last 60 games (+14.40 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 64 games (+13.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+13.10 Units / 26% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 32-35 (-6.5 Units / -8.69% ROI).

  • 37-31 against the Moneyline (-2.8 Units / -2.32% ROI)
  • 24-44 against the Over for game total points (-24.4 Units / -32.62% ROI)
  • 44-24 against the Under for game total points (+17.6 Units / 23.53% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Cavaliers have gone 34-31 (-0.1 Units / -0.13% ROI).

  • 43-25 against the Moneyline (+10.85 Units / 7.18% ROI)
  • 30-37 against the Over for game total points (-10.7 Units / -14.3% ROI)
  • 37-30 against the Under for game total points (+4 Units / 5.35% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 80 games (-32.15 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 34 games (-20.05 Units / -51% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 80 games (-19.70 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 42 games at home (-19.55 Units / -41% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Cavaliers have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 75 games (-18.85 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 77 games (-32.20 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 36 of their last 100 games (-32.05 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 84 games (-29.00 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 37 games (-23.60 Units / -55% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 79 games (-22.85 Units / -25% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers

The Heat were 11-7 (.611) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Heat are 8-10 (.444) when scoring fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Heat are 12-4 (.750) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .571

The Heat were 12-3 (.800) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

Cleveland Cavaliers: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Cavaliers are 30-8 (.789) when winning the rebounding margin this season — 6th-best in the NBA. The Heat have averaged 49.9 rebounds/game this season — 5th-lowest in the NBA.

The Cavaliers are 29-7 (.806) when scoring more second chance points than their opponent this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .565

The Cavaliers were 2-17 (.105) when allowing 15 or more three-pointers last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .298

The Cavaliers were 8-1 (.889) when forcing 10 or more steals last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .609

Injury Report: Cavaliers vs. HeatWednesday‘s Game, Mar. 20

  • Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • Tristan Thompson (Cleveland Cavaliers): Suspension, Out
  • Ty Jerome (Cleveland Cavaliers): Ankle, Out
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

Away Team Offense Stories

Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Stats & Trends

Home Team Offense Stories

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

Away Team Defense Stories

Cleveland Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

The Cavaliers allowed 106.9 points per game (8,764 points/82 games) last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 114.7

The Cavaliers have averaged 36.4 defensive rebounds per game (2,472 rebounds/68 games) this season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Cavaliers have allowed an eFG% of 51% on the road this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 55%

The Cavaliers averaged 33.5 defensive rebounds per game (2,745 rebounds/82 games) last season — 5th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.