Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 1

  • The Celtics are -13.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 199.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT | NBSB | SUN

The Miami Heat visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Boston, MA.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Celtics Over/Under is 200.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 43-43 against the spread, while the Celtics are 44-37 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+14.5 -115O 200.5 -110+675
Boston Celtics -14.5 -105U 200.5 -110-1100

Celtics vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Wednesday‘s game with 90.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Celtics.

Celtics vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 59.5% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 away games (+24.10 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 97 games (+17.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 54 of their last 98 games (+16.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 36 away games (+15.55 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 away games (+13.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 61 of their last 89 games (+29.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 34 games (+23.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 79 games (+22.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 49 of their last 67 games (+20.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 51 of their last 85 games (+17.00 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 43-43 (-4.3 Units / -4.44% ROI).

  • 48-40 against the Moneyline (+4.5 Units / 2.48% ROI)
  • 37-51 against the Over for game total points (-19.1 Units / -19.73% ROI)
  • 51-37 against the Under for game total points (+10.3 Units / 10.64% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 44-37 (+3.3 Units / 3.49% ROI).

  • 67-19 against the Moneyline (+0.95 Units / 0.21% ROI)
  • 44-41 against the Over for game total points (-1.05 Units / -1.11% ROI)
  • 41-44 against the Under for game total points (-7.4 Units / -7.82% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 99 games (-34.35 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-23.40 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 43 of their last 100 games (-20.80 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 21 games (-19.60 Units / -55% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (-17.70 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 97 games (-26.90 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 39 of their last 99 games (-26.15 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 97 games (-24.40 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 43 of their last 99 games (-20.05 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 39 of their last 91 games (-19.25 Units / -18% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

Keys to the game – away

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

Keys to the game – home

Injury Report: Celtics vs. HeatWednesday‘s Game, May 1

  • Jrue Holiday (Boston Celtics): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Derrick White (Boston Celtics): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Duncan Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out For Season
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Neck, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat are shooting 82% from the free throw line (3,045/3,691) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have made 16.5 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Celtics have a TS% of 55% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Celtics have made 16.3 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

The Celtics made 16.0 three-pointers per game last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (258 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (265 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 37.9 defensive rebounds per game (3,109 rebounds/82 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have allowed an average of 1.19 points per shot (8,957 points/7,515 shots) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28

The Celtics have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (489 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Celtics have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (538 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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About the Author

Shane Jackson

Read More @Sjacksonmgm

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.

Shane Jackson is a Web Content Writer for BetMGM, covering MLB and NBA. After graduating from the University of Kansas, his previous stops include MLB.com, Lawrence Journal-World, Manhattan Mercury, Bet Chicago Sports, WynnBET, and Sportsbook Review.