Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, May 1

  • The Celtics are -13.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 199.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT | NBSB | SUN

The Miami Heat visit TD Garden to take on the Boston Celtics on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Boston, MA.

The Celtics are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -14.5 (-105).

The Heat vs Celtics Over/Under is 200.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 43-43 against the spread, while the Celtics are 44-37 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Celtics Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+14.5 -115O 200.5 -110+675
Boston Celtics -14.5 -105U 200.5 -110-1100

Celtics vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Celtics will win Wednesday‘s game with 90.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Celtics.

Celtics vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Celtics will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 59.5% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 away games (+24.10 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 97 games (+17.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 54 of their last 98 games (+16.55 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 36 away games (+15.55 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 away games (+13.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 1H Spread in 61 of their last 89 games (+29.20 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 1H Moneyline in 30 of their last 34 games (+23.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 52 of their last 79 games (+22.05 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 49 of their last 67 games (+20.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have covered the 2Q Spread in 51 of their last 85 games (+17.00 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 43-43 (-4.3 Units / -4.44% ROI).

  • 48-40 against the Moneyline (+4.5 Units / 2.48% ROI)
  • 37-51 against the Over for game total points (-19.1 Units / -19.73% ROI)
  • 51-37 against the Under for game total points (+10.3 Units / 10.64% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Celtics have gone 44-37 (+3.3 Units / 3.49% ROI).

  • 67-19 against the Moneyline (+0.95 Units / 0.21% ROI)
  • 44-41 against the Over for game total points (-1.05 Units / -1.11% ROI)
  • 41-44 against the Under for game total points (-7.4 Units / -7.82% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 99 games (-34.35 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-23.40 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 43 of their last 100 games (-20.80 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 21 games (-19.60 Units / -55% ROI)
  • The Boston Celtics have only hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 15 games (-17.70 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 97 games (-26.90 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 39 of their last 99 games (-26.15 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 39 of their last 97 games (-24.40 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 43 of their last 99 games (-20.05 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 4Q Spread in 39 of their last 91 games (-19.25 Units / -18% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Boston Celtics

Keys to the game – away

Boston Celtics: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

Keys to the game – home

Injury Report: Celtics vs. HeatWednesday‘s Game, May 1

  • Jrue Holiday (Boston Celtics): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Derrick White (Boston Celtics): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • Duncan Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out For Season
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Neck, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat are shooting 82% from the free throw line (3,045/3,691) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Heat have averaged 53.3 points per game (4,368 points/82 games) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

Boston Celtics Offensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have made 16.5 three-pointers per game this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.8

The Celtics have a TS% of 55% this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 52%

The Celtics have made 16.3 three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.6

The Celtics made 16.0 three-pointers per game last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.4 blocks per game (280 blocks/82 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (258 blocks/82 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.0

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (265 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Boston Celtics Defensive Stats & Trends

The Celtics have averaged 37.9 defensive rebounds per game (3,109 rebounds/82 games) this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Celtics have allowed an average of 1.19 points per shot (8,957 points/7,515 shots) this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28

The Celtics have averaged 6.0 blocks per game (489 blocks/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Celtics have averaged 6.6 blocks per game (538 blocks/82 games) this season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.1


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Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.

Our BetMGM authors are sports experts, with a wealth of knowledge of the sports betting industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news across players, teams and coaches, providing betting previews and predictions, fun facts and more.