Heat vs Kings Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 26

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 26, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Kings are -6.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 224.5 points
  • Watch the game on NBAt | SUN | NSCA

The Miami Heat visit Golden 1 Center to take on the Sacramento Kings on Monday. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00pm EST in Sacramento, CA.

The Kings are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Kings Over/Under is 224.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 28-28 against the spread, while the Kings are 29-26 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Kings Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+7.5 -110O 224.5 -110+240
Sacramento Kings -7.5 -110U 224.5 -110-300

Kings vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Kings will win Monday‘s game with 79.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Kings.

Kings vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Kings will cover the spread for Monday‘s game with 55.5% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 away games (+25.80 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 47 of their last 80 games (+22.25 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 55 of their last 89 games (+19.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 65 games (+18.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+9.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.60 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have covered the 2Q Spread in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+6.85 Units / 8% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 28-28 (-2.7 Units / -4.39% ROI).

  • 31-25 against the Moneyline (+1.2 Units / 1.33% ROI)
  • 21-35 against the Over for game total points (-17.5 Units / -28.41% ROI)
  • 35-21 against the Under for game total points (+11.9 Units / 19.32% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Kings have gone 29-26 (+0.25 Units / 0.4% ROI).

  • 33-23 against the Moneyline (-14.75 Units / -11.92% ROI)
  • 28-26 against the Over for game total points (-0.6 Units / -0.97% ROI)
  • 26-28 against the Under for game total points (-4.8 Units / -7.79% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 75 games (-33.75 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only covered the 4Q Spread in 33 of their last 85 games (-24.15 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 83 games (-22.90 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 35 of their last 81 games (-14.95 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Sacramento Kings have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 games at home (-14.60 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 32 of their last 88 games (-25.85 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 65 games (-25.30 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 42 of their last 100 games (-22.40 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 72 games (-21.05 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 26 of their last 67 games (-18.80 Units / -26% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Sacramento Kings

The Heat are 23-7 (.767) when scoring 110 or more points this season — 6th-best in the NBA. The Kings have allowed 117.8 points per game this season — 9th-worst in the NBA.

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat are 8-3 (.727) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .573

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

Sacramento Kings: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Kings were 22-6 (.786) when shooting 40% or better from three last season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .702

The Kings were 1-11 (.083) when their eFG is 50% or worse last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .223

The Kings were 29-17 (.630) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Kings were 29-16 (.644) when they win the turnover margin last season — tied for 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .540

Injury Report: Kings vs. HeatMonday‘s Game, Feb. 26

  • Sasha Vezenkov (Sacramento Kings): Ankle, Out
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (7,092 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.8

The Heat have an eFG% of 49% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 54%

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

Sacramento Kings Offensive Stats & Trends

The Kings averaged 123.4 points per game (5,058 points/41 games) at home last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 115.9

The Kings are shooting 73% from the free throw line (827/1,132) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Kings averaged 59.0 points per game (4,837 points/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Kings averaged 24.7 points per game (1,578 points/64 games) in close and late situations last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 20.9

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

Sacramento Kings Defensive Stats & Trends

The Kings have averaged 3.9 blocks per game (203 blocks/52 games) this season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Kings have allowed 6.9 offensive rebounds per game (358 rebounds/52 games) in the second half this season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.4

The Kings have averaged 7.2 steals per game (374 steals/52 games) this season — tied for 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Kings averaged 3.4 blocks per game (275 blocks/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.