Heat vs Pelicans Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Feb. 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 23, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Pelicans are -3.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 220.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | BSNO

The Miami Heat visit Smoothie King Center to take on the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in New Orleans, LA.

The Pelicans are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Heat vs Pelicans Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 27-28 against the spread, while the Pelicans are 31-24 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Pelicans Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+2.5 -105O 218.5 -105+125
New Orleans Pelicans -2.5 -115U 218.5 -115-150

Pelicans vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Pelicans will win Friday‘s game with 65.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Pelicans.

Pelicans vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.8% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 away games (+24.70 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 46 of their last 79 games (+21.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 54 of their last 88 games (+18.10 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 52 of their last 87 games (+17.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 64 games (+17.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 53 of their last 76 games (+34.15 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have covered the 1H Spread in 49 of their last 76 games (+20.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 70 games (+16.90 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 78 games (+14.95 Units / 17% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 27-28 (-3.7 Units / -6.12% ROI).

  • 30-25 against the Moneyline (+0.1 Units / 0.11% ROI)
  • 21-34 against the Over for game total points (-16.4 Units / -27.11% ROI)
  • 34-21 against the Under for game total points (+10.9 Units / 18.02% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pelicans have gone 31-24 (+4.65 Units / 7.56% ROI).

  • 34-22 against the Moneyline (+7.85 Units / 6.66% ROI)
  • 27-29 against the Over for game total points (-4.9 Units / -7.95% ROI)
  • 29-27 against the Under for game total points (-0.7 Units / -1.14% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 78 games (-22.60 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 80 games (-16.60 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 80 games (-14.65 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 80 games (-13.05 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The New Orleans Pelicans have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 72 games (-12.30 Units / -15% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 31 of their last 87 games (-26.85 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 64 games (-24.20 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 99 games (-23.40 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 71 games (-19.95 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 90 games (-18.35 Units / -17% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Pelicans

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

The Heat were 17-3 (.850) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Heat were 32-21 (.604) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

New Orleans Pelicans: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pelicans are 11-1 (.917) when making 15 or more three-pointers this season — best in the NBA. The Heat have allowed 13.5 made three-pointers per game this season — T-6th-worst in the NBA.

The Pelicans were 10-22 (.312) when losing the rebounding margin last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .366

The Pelicans are 14-3 (.824) when forcing 10 or more steals this season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .573

The Pelicans are 19-3 (.864) when making 15 or more three-pointers since the start of the 2022-23 season — best in the NBA. The Heat have allowed 13.3 made three-pointers per game since the start of the 2022-23 season — T-3rd-worst in the NBA.

Injury Report: Pelicans vs. HeatFriday‘s Game, Feb. 23

  • Dyson Daniels (New Orleans Pelicans): Knee, Out
  • Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans): Foot, Game Time Decision
  • Cody Zeller (New Orleans Pelicans): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Jimmy Butler (Miami Heat): Personal, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat are shooting 42% (251/592) in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

New Orleans Pelicans Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans averaged 14.6 turnovers per game (1,196 turnovers/82 games) last season — tied for 9th highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

The Pelicans have an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (113 assists/ 81 TOs) in close and late situations this season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pelicans made 11.0 three-pointers per game last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 12.3

The Pelicans have a 28% free throw rate (1,303 free throw attempts/4,740 field goal attempts) this season — 7th highest among NBA teams; League Avg: 25%

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

New Orleans Pelicans Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pelicans have allowed opponents to shoot 33% from three (839/2,578) in the first half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Pelicans have averaged 8.3 steals per game (448 steals/54 games) this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Pelicans have averaged 35.5 defensive rebounds per game (4,825 rebounds/136 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 10th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pelicans averaged 8.3 steals per game (681 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.