Heat vs Pistons Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 15, 2024, 5:30 PM
  • The Heat are -7.5 favorites vs. the Pistons
  • Total (Over/Under): 215.5 points
  • Watch the game on BSDT | SUN

The Miami Heat visit Little Caesars Arena to take on the Detroit Pistons on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT in Detroit, MI.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at ().

The Heat vs Pistons Over/Under is total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 31-33 against the spread, while the Pistons are 32-31 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Pistons Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat O
Detroit Pistons U

Pistons vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Friday‘s game with 79.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Pistons.

Pistons vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Pistons will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 53.0% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 away games (+25.95 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 74 games (+21.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 51 of their last 89 games (+18.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 58 of their last 97 games (+18.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 27 of their last 35 games (+17.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+12.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the Spread in 24 of their last 36 games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 4Q Spread in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have covered the 1H Spread in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games at home (+8.80 Units / 43% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 31-33 (-5.3 Units / -7.41% ROI).

  • 35-30 against the Moneyline (-3.8 Units / -3.32% ROI)
  • 24-41 against the Over for game total points (-21.1 Units / -29.51% ROI)
  • 41-24 against the Under for game total points (+14.6 Units / 20.42% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Pistons have gone 32-31 (-2.1 Units / -2.94% ROI).

  • 12-53 against the Moneyline (-27 Units / -39.27% ROI)
  • 33-31 against the Over for game total points (-1.1 Units / -1.54% ROI)
  • 31-33 against the Under for game total points (-5.3 Units / -7.41% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 77 games (-35.90 Units / -44% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 76 games (-21.60 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 17 of their last 60 games (-16.35 Units / -26% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 25 of their last 63 games (-15.70 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Detroit Pistons have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 18 of their last 47 games (-15.70 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 97 games (-30.75 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 74 games (-28.90 Units / -36% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 31 of their last 81 games (-25.65 Units / -28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-24.00 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 76 games (-21.55 Units / -25% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Pistons

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

The Heat are 21-12 (.636) when they win the turnover margin this season — 9th-best in the NBA. The Pistons have averaged 15.5 turnovers per game this season — 2nd-highest in the NBA.

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat were 34-10 (.773) when scoring 110 or more points last season — 6th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .643

Detroit Pistons: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Pistons were 4-44 (.083) when they lose the turnover margin last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .460

The Pistons are 3-15 (.167) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .562

The Pistons are 3-19 (.136) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Pistons were 8-30 (.211) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

Injury Report: Pistons vs. HeatFriday‘s Game, Mar. 15

  • Isaiah Stewart (Detroit Pistons): Suspension, Out
  • Quentin Grimes (Detroit Pistons): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat are shooting 45% (2,537/5,644) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 47%

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

Detroit Pistons Offensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.4 (886 assists/ 615 TOs) on the road last season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons had an assist to turnover ratio of 1.5 (1,884 assists/ 1,237 TOs) last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Pistons shot 45% (3,244/7,140) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Pistons averaged 110.3 points per game (9,045 points/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (412 blocks/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

Detroit Pistons Defensive Stats & Trends

The Pistons have averaged 5.8 steals per game (303 steals/52 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4

The Pistons averaged 33.6 defensive rebounds per game (2,756 rebounds/82 games) last season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Pistons averaged 3.8 blocks per game (308 blocks/82 games) last season — 4th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Pistons have averaged 4.2 blocks per game (283 blocks/68 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — 6th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.