Heat vs Raptors Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 17, 2024, 4:31 PM
  • The Heat are -1.5 favorites vs. the Raptors
  • Total (Over/Under): 227.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN

The Miami Heat visit Scotiabank Arena to take on the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST in Toronto, ON.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Raptors Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 20-20 against the spread, while the Raptors are 19-20 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Raptors Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat-3.5 -110O 225.5 -110-165
Toronto Raptors +3.5 -110U 225.5 -110+135

Raptors vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Wednesday‘s game with 59.0% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Heat and Raptors, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Raptors vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Raptors will cover the spread for Wednesday‘s game with 52.3% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 70 games (+30.90 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 39 of their last 64 games (+22.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 48 of their last 73 games (+22.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 43 of their last 75 games (+20.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 away games (+13.75 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 28 of their last 39 games (+16.25 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+11.90 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 42 of their last 72 games (+8.20 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 79 games (+7.70 Units / 9% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 20-20 (-1.95 Units / -4.43% ROI).

  • 24-16 against the Moneyline (+8.95 Units / 14.55% ROI)
  • 18-22 against the Over for game total points (-6.2 Units / -14.09% ROI)
  • 22-18 against the Under for game total points (+2.2 Units / 5% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Raptors have gone 19-20 (-3.05 Units / -6.92% ROI).

  • 15-25 against the Moneyline (-16.15 Units / -25.37% ROI)
  • 23-17 against the Over for game total points (+4.3 Units / 9.78% ROI)
  • 17-23 against the Under for game total points (-8.35 Units / -18.96% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 21 of their last 60 games (-22.55 Units / -34% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 60 games (-21.30 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 33 of their last 77 games (-16.20 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 79 games (-15.45 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Toronto Raptors have only covered the 2Q Spread in 32 of their last 76 games (-15.00 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 89 games (-21.90 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 35 of their last 86 games (-21.70 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 40 of their last 97 games (-20.40 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 27 of their last 72 games (-18.55 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 18 of their last 50 away games (-17.25 Units / -31% ROI)

Jump to:

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Toronto Raptors

The Heat are 11-2 (.846) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .450

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

The Heat are 24-5 (.828) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — 9th-best in the NBA. The Raptors have allowed opponents to shoot 49% since the start of the 2022-23 season — 7th-worst in the NBA.

The Heat are 19-11 (.633) when allowing 12 or more offensive rebounds this season — 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .508

Toronto Raptors: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Raptors were undefeated (8-0) when making 15 or more three-pointers last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .700

The Raptors were undefeated (9-0) when assisting on 30 or more field goals last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: .729

The Raptors were 18-19 (.486) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Raptors were 17-27 (.386) when allowing 15 or more fastbreak points last season — 8th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .442

Injury Report: Raptors vs. HeatWednesday‘s Game, Jan. 17

  • Christian Koloko (Toronto Raptors): Illness, Game Time Decision
  • Markquis Nowell (Toronto Raptors): Ribs, Game Time Decision
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • R.J. Hampton (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat): Hip, Game Time Decision
  • Haywood Highsmith (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 53.0 points per game (6,469 points/122 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.5

The Heat have an eFG% of 48% in close and late situations this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 53%

Toronto Raptors Offensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors averaged 5.8 turnovers per game (476 turnovers/82 games) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.0

The Raptors have an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (1,501 assists/ 722 TOs) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Raptors had an assist to turnover ratio of 2.1 (987 assists/ 480 TOs) on the road last season — tied for best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.8

The Raptors averaged 11.7 turnovers per game (956 turnovers/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 14.1

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (375 blocks/122 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.3 blocks per game (132 blocks/40 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (190 blocks/62 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Toronto Raptors Defensive Stats & Trends

The Raptors averaged 31.9 defensive rebounds per game (2,615 rebounds/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Raptors stole the ball 772 times last season — most among NBA teams

The Raptors averaged 9.4 steals per game (772 steals/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Raptors have averaged 8.7 steals per game (522 steals/60 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.4


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.