Heat vs Thunder Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Mar. 8

  • The Thunder are -8.5 favorites vs. the Heat
  • Total (Over/Under): 223.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | KSBI

The Miami Heat visit Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Oklahoma City, OK.

The Thunder are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-110).

The Heat vs Thunder Over/Under is 224.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Heat are 31-31 against the spread, while the Thunder are 38-23 against the spread.


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Heat vs. Thunder Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Miami Heat+8.5 -110O 224.5 -115+290
Oklahoma City Thunder -8.5 -110U 224.5 -105-375

Thunder vs Heat Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Thunder will win Friday‘s game with 82.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Heat and Thunder.

Thunder vs Heat Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Friday‘s game with 51.2% confidence.


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  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 48 away games (+27.10 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 26 of their last 32 games (+19.30 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 49 of their last 86 games (+19.05 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 58 of their last 95 games (+18.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 71 games (+18.50 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 26 games at home (+19.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+16.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 41 of their last 66 games (+14.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 4Q Spread in 34 of their last 53 games (+14.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the 3Q Spread in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+13.10 Units / 33% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 31-31 (-3 Units / -4.4% ROI).

  • 35-27 against the Moneyline (+4.5 Units / 4.24% ROI)
  • 24-38 against the Over for game total points (-17.8 Units / -26.1% ROI)
  • 38-24 against the Under for game total points (+11.6 Units / 17.01% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Thunder have gone 38-23 (+12.65 Units / 18.55% ROI).

  • 43-19 against the Moneyline (+11.45 Units / 6.57% ROI)
  • 33-25 against the Over for game total points (+5.5 Units / 8.05% ROI)
  • 25-33 against the Under for game total points (-11.2 Units / -16.45% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 59 games (-18.45 Units / -27% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 78 games (-17.30 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 31 of their last 77 games (-17.05 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 36 of their last 81 games (-14.15 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Oklahoma City Thunder have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 30 of their last 70 games (-13.80 Units / -18% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 35 of their last 94 games (-26.15 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 71 games (-25.60 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 29 of their last 78 games (-25.55 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 41 of their last 100 games (-24.20 Units / -22% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 20 of their last 53 games (-16.35 Units / -28% ROI)

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Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder

The Heat are winless (0-3) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line this season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .394

The Heat are 12-7 (.632) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — tied for 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .440

The Heat are 6-7 (.462) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points this season — tied for 9th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .538

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .404

Oklahoma City Thunder: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Thunder are 23-2 (.920) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points this season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .560

The Thunder were 20-3 (.870) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .733

The Thunder were 18-26 (.409) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .457

The Thunder are undefeated (12-0) when winning the rebounding margin this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .647

Injury Report: Thunder vs. HeatFriday‘s Game, Mar. 8

  • Oklahoma City Thunder – No Injuries Reported
  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Knee, Game Time Decision
  • Thomas Bryant (Miami Heat): Not Injury Related, Game Time Decision
  • Josh Richardson (Miami Heat): Shoulder, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Orlando Robinson (Miami Heat): Back, Out
  • Terry Rozier (Miami Heat): Knee, Out

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 107.5 points per game (7,092 points/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.8

The Heat averaged 107.5 points per game (4,408 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 113.4

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

Oklahoma City Thunder Offensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder are shooting 41% from three (369/893) in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 37%

The Thunder have a TS% of 55% in the second half this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 51%

The Thunder have averaged 13.5 offensive rebounds per game (718 rebounds/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 16.5

The Thunder have averaged 5.1 second chance points per game (271 points/53 games) in the first half this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.8

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat have averaged 3.2 blocks per game (169 blocks/53 games) this season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 5.2

The Heat have averaged 3.1 blocks per game (211 blocks/69 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (201 blocks/66 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

Oklahoma City Thunder Defensive Stats & Trends

The Thunder have allowed 19.2 offensive rebounds per game (1,017 rebounds/53 games) this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.5

The Thunder have allowed 18.5 offensive rebounds per game (2,500 rebounds/135 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 16.4

The Thunder have allowed 9.8 offensive rebounds per game (519 rebounds/53 games) in the first half this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 8.0

The Thunder averaged 8.2 steals per game (676 steals/82 games) last season — 4th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.