Hornets vs Heat Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Jan. 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jan 14, 2024, 4:30 PM
  • The Heat are -7.5 favorites vs. the Hornets
  • Total (Over/Under): 222.5 points
  • Watch the game on SUN | BSCH

The Charlotte Hornets visit Kaseya Center to take on the Miami Heat on Sunday. Tipoff is scheduled for 6:00pm EST in Miami, FL.

The Heat are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-115).

The Hornets vs Heat Over/Under is 225.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Hornets are 14-22 against the spread, while the Heat are 18-20 against the spread.


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Hornets vs. Heat Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Charlotte Hornets+8.5 -105O 225.5 -110+300
Miami Heat -8.5 -115U 225.5 -110-400

Heat vs Hornets Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Heat will win Sunday‘s game with 77.5% confidence, factoring in recent team & player performances for the Hornets and Heat, plus player injuries and defensive & offensive matchups.

Heat vs Hornets Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Heat will cover the spread for Sunday‘s game with 52.2% confidence.


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  • The Charlotte Hornets have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 47 of their last 73 games (+19.55 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Charlotte Hornets have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 27 away games (+16.55 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Charlotte Hornets have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 30 of their last 43 games (+16.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Charlotte Hornets have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 67 games (+14.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Charlotte Hornets have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 71 games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 68 games (+28.85 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 38 of their last 62 games (+22.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have covered the 1Q Spread in 47 of their last 71 games (+22.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 42 of their last 73 games (+20.55 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 20 of their last 25 games (+14.55 Units / 53% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Hornets have gone 14-22 (-10.1 Units / -25.6% ROI).

  • 8-28 against the Moneyline (-8.15 Units / -21.65% ROI)
  • 18-18 against the Over for game total points (-1.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)
  • 18-18 against the Under for game total points (-1.8 Units / -4.55% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA season, the Heat have gone 18-20 (-3.95 Units / -9.45% ROI).

  • 22-16 against the Moneyline (+6.9 Units / 12.15% ROI)
  • 18-20 against the Over for game total points (-4 Units / -9.57% ROI)
  • 20-18 against the Under for game total points (+0.2 Units / 0.48% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 34 of their last 84 games (-21.50 Units / -23% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 3Q Moneyline in 34 of their last 87 games (-21.05 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only covered the 3Q Spread in 39 of their last 95 games (-20.30 Units / -19% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 82 games (-18.40 Units / -20% ROI)
  • The Miami Heat have only hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 41 games (-17.55 Units / -38% ROI)
  • The Charlotte Hornets have only covered the 1H Spread in 25 of their last 74 games (-28.70 Units / -35% ROI)
  • The Charlotte Hornets have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 25 of their last 73 games (-26.70 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Charlotte Hornets have only covered the 2Q Spread in 25 of their last 73 games (-24.35 Units / -30% ROI)
  • The Charlotte Hornets have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 16 of their last 74 games (-23.95 Units / -31% ROI)
  • The Charlotte Hornets have only hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 71 games (-23.45 Units / -29% ROI)

Jump to:

Charlotte Hornets: Keys to the Game vs. the Miami Heat

The Hornets are 2-6 (.250) when attempting 25 or more free throws this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .567

The Hornets are 12-53 (.185) when losing the rebounding margin since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .367

The Hornets are 9-42 (.176) when their opponent attempts 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .450

The Hornets are 17-28 (.378) when attempting 25 or more free throws since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .550

Miami Heat: Keys to the Game vs. the Charlotte Hornets

The Heat are 1-6 (.143) when shooting 70% or worse from the free throw line since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .402

The Heat are 9-2 (.818) when allowing 15 or more second chance points this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .442

The Heat are 13-6 (.684) when they win the turnover margin this season — 7th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .541

The Heat are 24-5 (.828) when shooting 50% or better from the field since the start of the 2022-23 season — 10th-best in the NBA. The Hornets have allowed opponents to shoot 48% since the start of the 2022-23 season — T-8th-worst in the NBA.

Injury Report: Heat vs. HornetsSunday‘s Game, Jan. 14

  • Tyler Herro (Miami Heat): Ankle, Game Time Decision
  • R.J. Hampton (Miami Heat): Knee, Out
  • Dru Smith (Miami Heat): Knee, Out For Season
  • Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat): Hip, Game Time Decision
  • Haywood Highsmith (Miami Heat): Back, Game Time Decision
  • Cody Martin (Charlotte Hornets): Knee, Out
  • LaMelo Ball (Charlotte Hornets): Ankle, Out
  • Frank Ntilikina (Charlotte Hornets): Lower Leg, Game Time Decision
  • Mark Williams (Charlotte Hornets): Back, Game Time Decision

Charlotte Hornets Offensive Stats & Trends

The Hornets are shooting 45% (2,332/5,158) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 48%

The Hornets are shooting 45% from three (78/173) in close and late situations this season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35%

The Hornets shot 33% from three (881/2,669) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 36%

The Hornets averaged 109.2 points per game (4,479 points/41 games) at home last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 115.9

Miami Heat Offensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 52.5 points per game (4,308 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 56.1

The Heat averaged 109.5 points per game (8,977 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 114.7

The Heat have averaged 5.0 fast break points per game (598 points/120 games) in the second half since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 6.6

The Heat shot 83% from the free throw line (1,567/1,885) last season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

Charlotte Hornets Defensive Stats & Trends

The Hornets have allowed opponents to shoot 43% from three (282/656) on the road this season — highest among NBA defenses; League Avg: 37%

The Hornets averaged 7.7 steals per game (634 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Hornets stole the ball 634 times last season — 9th most among NBA teams

The Hornets have averaged 32.6 defensive rebounds per game (1,174 rebounds/36 games) this season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.1

Miami Heat Defensive Stats & Trends

The Heat averaged 3.0 blocks per game (243 blocks/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.7

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (186 blocks/61 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (365 blocks/120 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.8

The Heat have averaged 3.0 blocks per game (179 blocks/59 games) at home since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 4.9


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.